529
FXUS63 KICT 122341
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
641 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND FLOODING.
- A MORE IMPRESSIVE ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE HAVING THE HIGHEST FLOODING POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
CURRENTLY HAVE A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN
DOWN INTO SOUTHERN CA WITH UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE TX GULF
COAST. AT THE SURFACE, COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN IA DOWN
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND INTO FAR NW KS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE EARLY THIS EVENING FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AS IT
SAGS SOUTH. THIS WILL ALSO BE IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL THETA-
E ADVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
THIS EVENING.
BY TUE AFTERNOON, COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH GENERALLY
BETWEEN I-70 AND HIGHWAY 50 WITH A SURFACE LOW FROM SOUTHEAST CO
INTO SOUTHWEST KS. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE PUSHING THE FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO SOME OF THE OTHERS WITH CONFIDENCE
INCREASING IN THE FASTER SOLUTIONS. NOT ONLY WOULD THIS HAVE AN
IMPACT ON DAYTIME CONVECTION, BUT ALSO WITH TEMPS. SO THERE'S A
CHANCE HIGHS ON TUE COULD BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS. STILL LOOKING FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE TUE AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED, WHICH LOOKS TO BE OVER WEST/CENTRAL KS,
CLOSER TO THE TRIPLE POINT. AFTER SUNSET, STORMS WILL THEN
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS-UP. STRONG UPPER JET
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM NORTHERN NM THROUGH NW KS AND
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THIS JET MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA TUE NIGHT. WITH STRONG
UPPER JET NEAR THE AREA, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FOR SOME HAIL, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER NORTH STORMS CAN DEVELOP.
WITH PW VALUES OVER 200% OF NORMAL STARTING TUE EVENING, HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AND POTENTIAL FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH COLD FRONT LOCATION BY WED
AFTERNOON WITH CAMS PUSHING IT FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO OTHER
GUIDANCE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BY 18Z WED, IT WILL STRETCH
SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SURFACE CONVECTION
MAINLY ONLY AFFECTING SOUTHEAST KS. WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WED, WE ARE EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS DEEP
UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO EASTERN CO. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET AND STRONG
UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION, EXTREMELY
HIGH PW AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG WITH NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A HIGH LIKELYHOOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE WILL HAVE
THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR FLOODING WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING, DUE
TO THEM BEING CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY GET SHEARED OUT ON THU AS ANOTHER UPPER
IMPULSE TRACKS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL PUSH THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY THU EVENING. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY MOVE-IN FRI AND SLIDE EAST FOR SAT, KEEPING THINGS DRY AND
ALLOWING FOR COMFORTABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH BREEZY EARLY EVENING
WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE
EARLIER ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND THE WIND SHIFT COULD OCCUR
IN THE 05-07Z TIMEFRAME IN THE KRSL AREA AND IN THE 09-11Z
TIMEFRAME AT KSLN AND KGBD. THIS FRONT MAY CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OR BECOME STATIONARY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY WHILE BECOMING A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED LATE DAY STORMS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF STORMS REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW AND NO
MENTION IN AREA TAFS AT THIS TIME AS HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS OR TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT...REDUCED
FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTH WHILE USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AIR.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...MM
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