030
FXUS63 KICT 130809
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
309 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OFF-AND-ON SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING LIKELY.
- A HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY
THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN THREATS.
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TODAY, GRADUALLY TURNING
MUCH COOLER FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE WEEK. FIRST FROST
OF THE SEASON POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:
LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...A STRONG SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH INTERACTING WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL, SOUTH-CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST KS. THINKING THE GREATEST
HAZARD FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS, DUE TO THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING SHOWERS/STORMS OWING TO THE PARALLEL
ORIENTATION OF THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT AND MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST
CAMS SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS
WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF HIGHWAY 50 SOUTH THROUGH
ABOUT HIGHWAYS 54/400 COUNTIES. LOCALIZED 3-5+ INCH AMOUNTS SEEM
POSSIBLE, SO WE WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A FLOOD WATCH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY FOR THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE COUNTIES.
ADDITIONALLY IN THE SAME AREA AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT, A
HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING, GIVEN THE MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY
AND DECENT 40-50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR. INITIAL
SUPERCELLS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO,
ESPECIALLY FOR ANY SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THAT CAN MAINTAIN INTO THE
EVENING WHEN THE SURFACE FLOW BACKS A BIT AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES. AFTER ABOUT 8-9 PM, THINKING MERGING COLD POOLS SHOULD
TRANSITION THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS TO WIND AND MARGINAL
HAIL (ALONG WITH CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL). FURTHERMORE, WILL LIKELY
SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT AS THE EVENING AND NIGHT PROGRESS, WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY MORNING...THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE OFF-AND-ON
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE REGION, AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE
WEST, AND THE DEEP COLD FRONTAL ZONE STALLS ACROSS THE AREA.
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY RICH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND STRONG FORCING
SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING ISSUES. LIMITED BUOYANCY SHOULD TEMPER THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN THE CURRENT
FLOOD WATCH OUT PAST EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER EXTENDING IT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
TEMPERATURES & WIND:
TODAY...THIS WILL BE THE LAST UNSEASONABLE WARM DAY, WITH UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S LIKELY. MAY FLIRT WITH RECORD HIGHS AT BOTH WICHITA AND
CHANUTE. IN CONTRAST, LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF GREAT BEND TO
SALINA WILL BE MUCH COOLER IN WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT, WITH
60S AND 70S LIKELY. HAD TO SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT NBM TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY IN THESE LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...HAD TO UNDERCUT NBM HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WELL, AND PROBABLY NOT QUITE ENOUGH, DUE
TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH THE STRONG POTENTIAL
FOR A FURTHER SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS IN THE 60S-
70S ARE LIKELY, WARMEST OVER SOUTHEAST KS. HOWEVER, CENTRAL KS MAY
NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S. STOUT/GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL EXPAND
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY IN WAKE OF THIS STRONG STORM
SYSTEM.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A DEEPENING CENTRAL TO EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN
UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH INTO MID-
AMERICA, SUPPORTING THE COOLEST AIR THUS FAR THIS FALL SEASON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWS 60S APPEAR LIKELY. ADDITIONALLY,
STOUT/GUSTY NORTH WINDS FRIDAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. THE
COOLEST NIGHT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS LIKELY DIPPING INTO
THE 30S TO LOW 40S UNDERNEATH THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES, ADDED THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST EARLY
SATURDAY GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A QUICK RETURN TO
SEASONABLE OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY BY NEXT
WEEK, AS ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS WELL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND TAFS
WERE ADJUSTED FOR A MORE RAPID NNE WIND SHIFT ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR AND THIS MORE RAPID WIND SHIFT MAY STILL NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED FURTHER SOUTH AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT
THE FRONT MAY BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. SOME
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL KS TAF SITES.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ051>053-067>072-082-083.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...MM
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