179
FXUS61 KILN 090526
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1226 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2024
SYNOPSIS
GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS BUT STILL DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID OHIO VALLEY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN LIKELY ON SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A BIT OF A GRADIENT MAY
KEEP FOG SUPPRESSED TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE MOST PRONE VALLEY
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE DAY, WITH WINDS FROM EAST. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. SO STEADY TEMPERATURES TO
START SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN RISING TOWARD SUNRISE WITH THE
WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH ONSET
TIME OF WIDESPREAD RAIN, AS THE INCREASED MOISTURE HAS A PRETTY
DRY AIRMASS TO OVERCOME, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-71.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S IN CENTRAL OHIO TO 50-55
ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
TWO MAIN SYSTEMS WILL BE WORKING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE LONG
TERM. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.
ON SUNDAY WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. OVER AN INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. THERE
IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE DO NOT MENTION
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH, WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE 60S. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S, HOWEVER CLOUD COVER
STICKING AROUND FOR A PORTION OF THE NIGHT WILL KEEP THEM FROM
DROPPING FURTHER.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WAA RETURNS
FOR MONDAY ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY HOWEVER
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER AS WELL ON
TUESDAY FROM MONDAY, HOWEVER STILL EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR HIGHS.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE AN ADDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING LEADING TO COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH
DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. SOME RESIDUAL MORE
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER ON THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE LONG TERM WILL END ON A DRY NOTE WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PRESENT FOR FRIDAY.
AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN
QUIET CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY, RESULTING
IN SOME LOWERED VSBYS AT KLUK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO OUT OF THE
EAST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES EAST OUT OF THE REGION.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS BUILDING IN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM OFF TO OUR WEST. EASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE, AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO. CLOUDS BEGIN TO BUILD IN IN
EARNEST AND LOWER AS WE HEAD TOWARD SUNSET SATURDAY.
LOWERED CIGS AND RAIN WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE WESTERN TAF
SITES FIRST SATURDAY NIGHT -HAVE COMMUNICATED THIS IN EXTENDED
KCVG 30 HOUR TAF.
OUTLOOK...RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...CA
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