601
FXUS61 KILN 090903
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
403 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2024
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY. RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVE TO THE REGION SATURDAY
LATE NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE AREA
DRIES OUT FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR SATURDAY. THE AREA REMAINS DRY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S, RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE. HOWEVER, THE QUIET WEATHER IS
SHORT LIVED A 500H CLOSED LOW IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO OCCLUDE,
OPEN UP, AND WORKS ITS WAY EAST. CONSEQUENTIALLY, HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
GRADUALLY LOWERING INTO THE EVENING, AND WINDS SHIFT TO OUT OF
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. WORTH NOTING THAT RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
LOW 30S EAST OF I-75 IN THE DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.
HOWEVER, AFTERNOON WINDS AREN'T FORECAST TO HAVE INCREASED JUST
YET, SO NOT ANTICIPATING TOO MANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
THE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE PROGRESSED
SOUTHEAST, SETTLING OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE, WHILE THE 500H
OCCLUDING LOW BARRELS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DESPITE THE LOW
OCCLUDING AND OPENING UP INTO THE LARGER FLOW, ITS SURFACE
FEATURES WILL STILL LIFT THROUGH THE ILN CWA IN THE FORM OF A
WARM FRONT, BRIEF WARM SECTOR, THEN COLD FRONT FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING. SOME VERY
WEAK INSTABILITY MIGHT ALLOW FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER, BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD JUST
BE RAIN SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FALL TO THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE WARM SECTOR WILL
BE IN PLACE LONGER AND UPPER 40S NEAR CENTRAL OHIO.
DESPITE THE LOW OCCLUDING AND OPENING UP, THIS WILL STILL
CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST AND THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ACTS TO INTRODUCE
A STRONG LLJ INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO SUNDAY. AS THIS WIND IS MIXED DOWN WITH PRECIP,
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH.
BY SUNDAY MORNING, MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD BE SEEING SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN; TOTAL QPF WILL FALL BETWEEN 0.7-1.0" WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS. DESPITE THIS RAINFALL, MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
STILL BE IN A DEFICIT OF SEVERAL INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES
OUT SUNDAY LATE MORNING, LEAVING SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY REACH THE MID 60S, BUT WITH RAIN AND
WIND, IT WON'T BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY TO BE OUTSIDE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY
ON SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWER CHANCES COME TO AN END BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SKIRT BY TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. DESPITE THE COOL DOWN IN
TEMPERATURES, READINGS WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE MID NOVEMBER
AVERAGES.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA (STILL SOME
TIMING UNCERTAINTY). A BRIEF SURGE OF WARMER, MORE HUMID AIR IS
POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
DROP ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES MAY FINALLY DROP TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN
QUIET CONDITIONS. RIVER VALLEY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY, RESULTING
IN SOME LOWERED VSBYS AT KLUK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO OUT OF THE
EAST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES EAST OUT OF THE REGION.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS BUILDING IN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM OFF TO OUR WEST. EASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE, AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO. CLOUDS BEGIN TO BUILD IN IN
EARNEST AND LOWER AS WE HEAD TOWARD SUNSET SATURDAY.
LOWERED CIGS AND RAIN WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE WESTERN TAF
SITES FIRST SATURDAY NIGHT -HAVE COMMUNICATED THIS IN EXTENDED
KCVG 30 HOUR TAF.
OUTLOOK...RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...CA
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