399
FXUS61 KILN 092105
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
405 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2024
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING RAIN TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE AREA DRIES OUT FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT THREAT FOR RAIN ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
BY MORNING. FLOW BACKS WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT THAT PIVOTS NORTH THRU THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS
IS INITIALLY DRY AND ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM A
MID DECK LATER THIS EVENING - MAIN FOCUS OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN MORE FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS.
EXPECT RAIN TO BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE AS PCPN EXPANDS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME VERY MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE - SO CAN NOT
RULE OUT AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM. RAINFALL BY MORNING TO RANGE
FROM 0.50 TO 0.75 SOUTHWEST TO .1 TO .2 NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY.
MILD TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO
THE LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO OPEN UP/WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE REGION
LOOKS TO BE A WARM SECTOR WITH A 45-50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET OFFERING FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUNDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IN THE MORNING TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE SOME AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS EAST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY THRU SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGHS TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 60 TO 65.
THE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
THRU SUNDAY EVENING TO RANGE FROM 0.5 INCHES NORTHWEST TO
1 TO 1.5 INCHES GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-71.
RAIN TO END SUNDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST
AND CLOUDS DECREASE. LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO THE
UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THEREFORE JUST HAVE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN ON TUESDAY WITH CAA
AS WELL.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM FROM THE 30S AT THE
START OF THE DAY TO THE 50S AND 60S ON WEDNESDAY. IN SOME AREAS
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AFTER DARK WEDNESDAY EVENING AS WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
RAIN WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER DARK WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND THEN RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE AROUND FOR THURSDAY WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL WORK BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
TIMING OF A SYSTEM AND ALSO WITH TEMPERATURES. WENT CLOSER TO THE
BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD DUE TO SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTIES AND RANGE
OF SOLUTIONS.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING THRU THE
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WITH CLOUDS LOWERING AND RAIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE - THERE MAY BE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA THIS EVENING BUT THE BULK OF PCPN
ARRIVES BETWEEN 06-08Z.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 45-50 KTS COMES INTO PLAY SUNDAY
MORNING AND MAY OFFER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH CIGS QUICKLY DROPPING THRU MVFR
CATEGORY AND BECOMING IFR ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KTS TODAY
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY
BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
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