879
FXUS61 KILN 100549
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1249 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2024
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING RAIN
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE AREA DRIES OUT FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT THREAT FOR RAIN ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, A DECENT MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER/MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS IT DOES, MOISTURE WILL BE
TRANSPORTED NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT.
BROAD SCALE WARM, MOIST ASCENT WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. WINDS WILL VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTH AND WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME GUSTY TOWARD MORNING. LOWS WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY
MORNING (UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER/MID 50S) THEN REMAIN STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISE LATE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO OPEN UP/WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE REGION
LOOKS TO BE A WARM SECTOR WITH A 45-50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET OFFERING FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUNDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IN THE MORNING TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE SOME AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS EAST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY THRU SUNDAY
EVENING. HIGHS TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 60 TO 65.
THE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL THRU
SUNDAY EVENING TO RANGE FROM 0.5 INCHES NORTHWEST TO 1 TO 1.5
INCHES GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-71.
RAIN TO END SUNDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST
AND CLOUDS DECREASE. LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO THE
UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THEREFORE
JUST HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN ON
TUESDAY WITH CAA AS WELL.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM FROM THE 30S AT
THE START OF THE DAY TO THE 50S AND 60S ON WEDNESDAY. IN SOME
AREAS TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AFTER DARK WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
WARM AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RAIN WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
AFTER DARK WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THEN RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE AROUND FOR THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL WORK BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
TIMING OF A SYSTEM AND ALSO WITH TEMPERATURES. WENT CLOSER TO
THE BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD DUE TO SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTIES
AND RANGE OF SOLUTIONS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ALL SITES CURRENTLY VFR BUT CONDITIONS WILL SOON DETERIORATE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. LOTS TO TALK ABOUT SO BROKE IT DOWN BY CATEGORY
BELOW...
PRECIP: RECENT RADAR REFLECTIVITY INDICATES SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS FALLING OUT OF A MID-DECK MOVING THROUGH THE
COVERAGE AREA. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THESE WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. MODERATE INTENSITY WIDESPREAD
RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE ODD RUMBLE OF THUNDER, BUT PRIMARILY EXPECTING
SHOWERS SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY TS IN TAFS. RAIN TAPERS OFF LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND WE DRY OUT FOR
THE EVENING HOURS.
CIGS/VSBYS: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD, EXPECTING VSBYS TO DROP WITH
ONGOING PRECIP. RIGHT NOW, HAVE KEPT VSBYS ABOVE 2SM, BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOWERED POCKETS. WILL BE SOMETHING
TO MONITOR. CIGS CURRENTLY AROUND 100K FT WILL QUICKLY FALL TO
MVFR THEN IFR BY EARLY MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS
IFR DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH POCKETS OF LIFR POSSIBLE. AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, WE'LL EXPERIENCE AN
ABRUPT CLEARING AS POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE PROCESSES TAKE OVER.
HOWEVER, EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL SCATTERED COLD AIR ADVECTION CU
IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME. COULD POSSIBLY BE BKN AT TIMES.
WINDS: WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO RAMP UP BETWEEN 07-12Z AND
SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN. THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT
PATCHY SIGNAL FOR LLWS, PARTICULARLY FOR KDAY DURING SUNDAY
EARLY MORNING HOURS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LLWS FOR THIS SITE FROM 11-13Z. FOR REMAINING SITES, BEGIN TO
INTRODUCE GUSTS AS EARLY AS 12Z AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 12-15 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS, WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY
SHIFT TO OUT OF THE WEST AND GUSTS WILL DECREASE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/AR
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CA
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