695
FXUS61 KILN 100843
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
343 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2024
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGS SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
SYNOPTICALLY, AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, AN OCCLUDING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION, WITH ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT, WARM SECTOR, AND COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. TO OUR
SOUTHEAST, AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
ILN CWA AS A LLJ IS SET UP. THIS TRANSLATES TO AN UPTICK IN
WIND SPEEDS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH
GUSTING TO 25 MPH THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING, ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL INTRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
PWATS ARE AROUND 300-350% OF NORMAL, AND THEREFORE, WE'RE
ANTICIPATING SOME EFFICIENT RAIN RATES. GUIDANCE NOW COMFORTABLY
SUGGESTING 1-1.25" ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-70, WITH AREAS
NORTH AROUND 0.5" THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH THE BULK OF
THIS FALLING DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE THANKS TO SOME WEAK MUCAPE, BUT OTHERWISE, MOST AREAS
WILL JUST HAVE RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD, REACHING THE UPPER 50S/ LOW
60S. ALTHOUGH, WITH THE RAIN AND WIND, IT WON'T NECESSARILY FEEL
LIKE A MILD DAY OUTSIDE!
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AT THE START
OF THE SHORT TERM AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST.
WINDS SHIFT TO OUT OF THE WEST AND GUSTS DECREASE AS WE HEAD
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID
40S AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME BEGINS.
MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE BREEZY, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-70 WHERE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH. ANTICIPATING SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH MONDAY IN
THE CAA, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-70. HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE
UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER IS THICKEST, LOW 60S IN
THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO REDEVELOP AND TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARE
FORECAST TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO
BE PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE TOTAL QPF ON THE LOW SIDE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
BRINGING NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BEFORE MODERATING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY ARRIVE
LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE NEXT LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM OUT IN THE
PLAINS.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ALL SITES CURRENTLY VFR BUT CONDITIONS WILL SOON DETERIORATE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. LOTS TO TALK ABOUT SO BROKE IT DOWN BY CATEGORY
BELOW...
PRECIP: RECENT RADAR REFLECTIVITY INDICATES SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS FALLING OUT OF A MID-DECK MOVING THROUGH THE
COVERAGE AREA. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THESE WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES. MODERATE INTENSITY WIDESPREAD
RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE ODD RUMBLE OF THUNDER, BUT PRIMARILY EXPECTING
SHOWERS SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY TS IN TAFS. RAIN TAPERS OFF LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND WE DRY OUT FOR
THE EVENING HOURS.
CIGS/VSBYS: CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD, EXPECTING VSBYS TO DROP WITH
ONGOING PRECIP. RIGHT NOW, HAVE KEPT VSBYS ABOVE 2SM, BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOWERED POCKETS. WILL BE SOMETHING
TO MONITOR. CIGS CURRENTLY AROUND 100K FT WILL QUICKLY FALL TO
MVFR THEN IFR BY EARLY MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS
IFR DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH POCKETS OF LIFR POSSIBLE. AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, WE'LL EXPERIENCE AN
ABRUPT CLEARING AS POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE PROCESSES TAKE OVER.
HOWEVER, EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL SCATTERED COLD AIR ADVECTION CU
IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME. COULD POSSIBLY BE BKN AT TIMES.
WINDS: WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO RAMP UP BETWEEN 07-12Z AND
SOME OF THESE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN. THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT
PATCHY SIGNAL FOR LLWS, PARTICULARLY FOR KDAY DURING SUNDAY
EARLY MORNING HOURS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LLWS FOR THIS SITE FROM 11-13Z. FOR REMAINING SITES, BEGIN TO
INTRODUCE GUSTS AS EARLY AS 12Z AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 12-15 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS, WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY
SHIFT TO OUT OF THE WEST AND GUSTS WILL DECREASE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...CA
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