304
FXUS61 KILN 101103
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
603 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2024
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGS SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SYNOPTICALLY, AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, AN OCCLUDING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION, WITH ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT, WARM SECTOR, AND COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. TO OUR
SOUTHEAST, AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
ILN CWA AS A LLJ IS SET UP. THIS TRANSLATES TO AN UPTICK IN
WIND SPEEDS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH
GUSTING TO 25 MPH THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING, ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL INTRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
PWATS ARE AROUND 300-350% OF NORMAL, AND THEREFORE, WE'RE
ANTICIPATING SOME EFFICIENT RAIN RATES. GUIDANCE NOW COMFORTABLY
SUGGESTING 1-1.25" ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-70, WITH AREAS
NORTH AROUND 0.5" THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH THE BULK OF
THIS FALLING DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE THANKS TO SOME WEAK MUCAPE, BUT OTHERWISE, MOST AREAS
WILL JUST HAVE RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD, REACHING THE UPPER 50S/ LOW
60S. ALTHOUGH, WITH THE RAIN AND WIND, IT WON'T NECESSARILY FEEL
LIKE A MILD DAY OUTSIDE!
SHORT TERM /MONDAY/
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AT THE START
OF THE SHORT TERM AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST.
WINDS SHIFT TO OUT OF THE WEST AND GUSTS DECREASE AS WE HEAD
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID
40S AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME BEGINS.
MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE BREEZY, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-70 WHERE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AS THE PARENT SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH. ANTICIPATING SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH MONDAY IN
THE CAA, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-70. HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE
UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER IS THICKEST, LOW 60S IN
THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO REDEVELOP AND TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARE
FORECAST TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO
BE PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE TOTAL QPF ON THE LOW SIDE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
BRINGING NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BEFORE MODERATING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY ARRIVE
LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE NEXT LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM OUT IN THE
PLAINS.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS TAFS OTHER THAN SOME MINOR
TIMING TWEAKS. LOTS TO TALK ABOUT SO BROKE IT DOWN BY CATEGORY
BELOW...
PRECIP: RECENT RADAR REFLECTIVITY INDICATES WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MODERATE
INTENSITY RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE ODD RUMBLE OF THUNDER, BUT PRIMARILY
EXPECTING SHOWERS SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY TS IN TAFS. RAIN TAPERS
OFF LATE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND WE DRY
OUT FOR THE EVENING HOURS.
CIGS/VSBYS: MOST SITES ARE AT MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KLUK, WHICH HAS DROPPED TO IFR VSBY. THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT ALL SITES WILL HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WE MAY EVEN SEE POCKETS OF LIFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON AT NORTHERN TAF SITES, BUT DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE, DID
NOT INCLUDE JUST YET. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING, WE'LL EXPERIENCE AN ABRUPT CLEARING AS POST-FRONTAL
SUBSIDENCE PROCESSES TAKE OVER. HOWEVER, EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL
SCATTERED COLD AIR ADVECTION CU IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME.
COULD POSSIBLY BE BKN AT TIMES.
WINDS: A LLJ MOVING THROUGH WILL MIX DOWN, INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS NEAR THE SURFACE. WE'RE JUST STARTING TO SEE AN INCREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD AND THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 12-15
KNOTS, WITH 25 KNOT GUSTS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO OUT OF
THE WEST AND GUSTS WILL DECREASE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...CA
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