462
FXUS61 KILN 102035
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
335 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2024
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND RAIN WILL COME TO AN END WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN. THE NEXT THREAT
FOR RAIN ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MID LEVEL LOW AND STACKED SURFACE LOW TO TRACK EAST THRU THE
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
EAST THRU ILN/S FA THIS EVENING AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHIFT TO OUT OF THE WEST AND GUSTS
WILL DECREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS LOOK TO
DECREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDS TO MOSTLY CLEAR. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FALL TO LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S WEST TO THE MID/UPPER 40S EAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
NORTHWEST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH COMPACT SHORTWAVE DROPPING
THRU THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
THIS SHORTWAVE WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST THRU
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL COME THRU DRY BUT SHALLOW
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS - WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON IN LOW LEVEL
CAA REGIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE
NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER IS THICKEST, TO THE LOW 60S IN THE
SOUTH.
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS TO DECREASE LEADING TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO
LOWS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH CAA ON TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 50
DEGREES AND EXPECT CAA CU. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
50S TO LOWER 60S WITH WAA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE
IS A LITTLE MORE MODEL VARIABILITY TODAY THAN THERE HAS BEEN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DUE TO THIS HAVE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY, HOWEVER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE RAISED ONCE TIMING DETAILS ARE RESOLVED.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL START TO
WORK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING. MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE THRU THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES TAPER OFF AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND WE DRY
OUT FOR THE EVENING HOURS.
IN THE MOIST AIRMASS IFR CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST,
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT A
QUICK IMPROVEMENT IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS MONDAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 12-15 KNOTS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
GUSTS WILL DECREASE. WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
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