198
FXUS61 KILN 110539
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1239 AM EST MON NOV 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
WEAK RIDGING MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH
JUST SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
TREND DRIER AND COOLER.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. CLOUDS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES IN ITS WAKE. DRIER AND COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
NORTHWEST TO NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
NORTHWEST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH COMPACT SHORTWAVE DROPPING
THRU THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
THIS SHORTWAVE WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST THRU
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL COME THRU DRY BUT SHALLOW
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS - WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON IN LOW LEVEL
CAA REGIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE
NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER IS THICKEST, TO THE LOW 60S IN THE
SOUTH.
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS TO DECREASE LEADING TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO
LOWS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH CAA ON TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 50
DEGREES AND EXPECT CAA CU. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH WAA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE IS A LITTLE MORE MODEL VARIABILITY TODAY THAN
THERE HAS BEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DUE TO THIS HAVE LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY, HOWEVER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED ONCE TIMING
DETAILS ARE RESOLVED.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL START TO
WORK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEARER FOR THE LOCAL SITES IN THE POST-
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, BUT ADDITIONAL STRATOCU WILL WORK BACK INTO
THE AREA FOR THE DAYTIME, LEADING TO SCT/BKN MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST COVERAGE OF CIGS WILL DRIFT TO THE
S/SE THROUGH THE DAYTIME, EVENTUALLY REACHING KCVG/KLUK PAST
18Z. THESE CIGS MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER OUT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
A SECONDARY FRONT BETWEEN ABOUT 00Z-02Z, BUT SHOULD RETURN ONCE
AGAIN TOWARD/BEYOND 06Z FOR END OF KCVG 30-HR TAF PERIOD.
WNW WINDS AROUND 10KTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL SUBSIDE A BIT
TOWARD DAYBREAK BEFORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN MIXING LEADS TO WSW AT
12-15KTS, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25KTS AT TIMES, DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS SHOULD AGAIN SUBSIDE TO 10-12KTS
SLOWLY PAST 21Z, EVENTUALLY GOING OUT OF THE NNW AT 10KTS OR
LESS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/AR
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KC
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