349
FXUS61 KILN 111502
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1002 AM EST MON NOV 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ABOUT THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH COMPACT SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A SECONDARY SURFACE COLD FRONT TO DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND PIVOT INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH. BY LATE AFTERNOON - SKIES WILL VARY FROM MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH TO MOSTLY SUNNY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
A SECOND S/W PIVOTING TO THE SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLYS
BY LATE THIS EVENING WILL BRING WITH IT ANOTHER COLD FRONT,
WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM N TO S THROUGH THE ILN FA THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL BE MARKED BY A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO OUT OF THE
N, ALONG WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF SEASONABLY CHILLY AIR, WHICH
WILL SETTLE IN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S BEFORE REBOUNDING TO THE LOWER 50S
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AMIDST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE/SCATTER OUT LATE IN THE DAY
TUESDAY, YIELDING TO CLEAR SKIES TOWARD SUNSET AND BEYOND AS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS E OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH BY
LATE ON WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO START
INCREASING. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE LAKES. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS A WARM
FRONT AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT WHICH SHOULD HELP SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DESPITE THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES, READINGS
STILL REMAIN ABOVE MID NOVEMBER AVERAGES. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
THE AREA.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEARER FOR THE LOCAL SITES IN THE POST-
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, BUT ADDITIONAL STRATOCU WILL WORK BACK INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 15Z-18Z, LEADING TO SCT/BKN MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST COVERAGE OF CIGS WILL
DRIFT TO THE S/SE THROUGH THE DAYTIME, EVENTUALLY REACHING
KCVG/KLUK PAST 18Z. THESE CIGS MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER OUT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY FRONT BETWEEN ABOUT 00Z-03Z, BUT
SHOULD RETURN ONCE AGAIN TOWARD/BEYOND 03Z, WITH BKN/OVC
CONDITIONS OVERSPREADING FROM THE NE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
W WINDS AROUND 10KTS THIS MORNING WILL GO MORE OUT OF THE WSW
AT 12-15KTS, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS AT TIMES, DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS SHOULD AGAIN SUBSIDE TO 10-12KTS
SLOWLY PAST 21Z, EVENTUALLY GOING OUT OF THE NNW AT 10KTS OR
LESS PAST 06Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...KC
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