808
FXUS61 KILN 112037
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
337 PM EST MON NOV 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
BRINGS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST THRU THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING.
DIURNALLYDRIVEN CLOUDS - WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
NORTH - WILL DECREASE FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET. IN
THE LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF
SEASONABLY CHILLY AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND
THEN NORTHERLY AT DIMINISH TO 8 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS TO DECREASE COVERAGE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL OFFER TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM 50 NORTH
TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.
THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST TO THE
POSITION CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS FROM 30 NORTH TO THE MID
30S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A SYSTEM WILL BRING TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT LINGERS INTO FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH
VARIATIONS ON TIMING AND STRENGTH. DUE TO THIS WENT CLOSE TO THE
BLEND AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF SITES
LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY EVENING. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. THESE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS.
THESE CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER OUT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE SECONDARY FRONT, BUT MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
RE-DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS CLOUDS
LIFT DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.
WEST WINDS AT 12-15KTS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
AND THEN NORTH AT 10KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NORTHEAST
WINDS AT 10-12KTS ON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
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