608
FXUS61 KILN 120001
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
701 PM EST MON NOV 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING LATER FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST THRU THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS - WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
NORTH - WILL DECREASE FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET.
IN THE LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A REINFORCING SHOT OF
SEASONABLY CHILLY AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND
THEN NORTHERLY AT DIMINISH TO 8 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS TO DECREASE COVERAGE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL OFFER
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE
FROM 50 NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.
THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST TO THE
POSITION CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS FROM 30 NORTH TO THE MID
30S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A SYSTEM WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY. AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THERE WILL BE
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT LINGERS INTO FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH VARIATIONS ON TIMING AND STRENGTH. DUE TO THIS WENT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. SOME VFR
STRATOCUMLUS CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MAIN EFFECT WILL
BE THE WIND VEERING FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST TO NORTH. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 8 TO 14 KNOTS LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOME LATER OVERNIGHT. IN THE CAA
PATTERN, COLDER AIR WILL FUNNEL IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
MORE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO THE REGION, WHICH WILL BRING
CEILINGS VARYING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR (2500 TO 3500 FEET).
ON TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. MVFR TO VFR
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS WILL SCATTER DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST, SUSTAINED BETWEEN 8 AND 12
KNOTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH INTO THE
AREA. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HICKMAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page