097
FXUS61 KILN 120540
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1240 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING LATER FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF TUESDAY. WINDS WILL VEER FROM WEST TO NORTH WITH ITS PASSAGE.
SOME GUSTS WILL OCCUR WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE, WINDS
WILL SETTLE DOWN SOME OVERNIGHT. IN THE LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN
BEHIND THE FRONT, COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE WARMER WATERS OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS TO DECREASE COVERAGE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL OFFER
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE
FROM 50 NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.
THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST TO THE
POSITION CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS FROM 30 NORTH TO THE MID
30S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A SYSTEM WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY. AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THERE WILL BE
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT LINGERS INTO FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH VARIATIONS ON TIMING AND STRENGTH. DUE TO THIS WENT
CLOSE TO THE BLEND AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE EVOLVED LOCALLY FOR THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT SOME BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR STRATOCU WILL WORK BACK IN
FROM THE NE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND BEYOND. THE CIGS SHOULD
GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN ABOUT 2500-3500FT AND WILL SCATTER OUT
PAST 21Z AS THE BEST COVERAGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE SW. AS
SUCH, CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL EVOLVE FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE
DAYTIME BEFORE SKIES TREND MOSTLY CLEAR AREA-WIDE TOWARD 00Z.
SOME CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SW TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD AND BEYOND.
NNE WINDS AROUND 8-10KTS WILL INCREASE SUBTLY DURING THE DAYTIME
TO 10-12KTS, GOING MORE OUT OF THE NE PAST 12Z. WINDS WILL GO
MORE EASTERLY AT 5-7KTS TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KC
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