645
FXUS61 KILN 121734
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1234 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING LATER FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
STRATOCUMULUS DECK FORMING IN A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE
CIRCULATING AROUND GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE IS ADVANCING SLOWLY
SOUTH. THE PROGRESS OF THIS CLOUD DECK IS SLOWING AS IT MOVES
INTO DRIER AIR, WITH LOCATIONS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER REMAINING
SUNNY THROUGH THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MANY LOCALES N OF THE OH RVR
LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS A
BIT COOLER IN THE POST- FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. HIGHS SHOULD TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 40S (N OF I-70) TO THE LOWER 50S (NEAR/S OF THE
OH RVR) AMIDST A STEADY LIGHT NE BREEZE.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA, ALLOWING
FOR LL FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE
APPROACH OF A FAIRLY STRONG/SHARP S/W BY LATE WEDNESDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER,
THE PCPN CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER THE CONCLUSION
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, SO EXPECT THAT MOST, IF NOT ALL,
LOCALES REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING.
IT'LL BE ANOTHER SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT AMIDST MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW, WITH TEMPS GENERALLY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S IN CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL OH TO
THE MID 30S IN THE TRI-STATE. STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY SFC
FLOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND 60
DEGREES BY LATE IN THE DAY, DESPITE THE THICKENING MID/HIGH
CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL LIFT A
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY BEFORE SUNRISE. RAIN COVERAGE MAY DECREASE AFTER SUNRISE
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS DESPITE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAIN
CHANCES THEN DROP OFF GRADUALLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO START THE WORK WEEK WHEN THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS IN SHALLOW
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HAVING ALREADY CLEARED CMH AND
LCK, THE CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST TO ALL SITES BY AROUND 22Z. THIS SHOULD LEAVE ONLY
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST WHILE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS
TO THE WEST. WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BACK TO SOUTHEAST,
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC/CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
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