224
FXUS61 KILN 122022
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
322 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND.
LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR RETURN
FOR FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE
DRY WEATHER IN ITS ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
THAT HAVE FORMED IN A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE, ALLOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S, WITH
UPPER 20S IN SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LOW PRESSURE,
DRIVEN BY A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AND CARRYING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE,
IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO ILLINOIS. RAIN WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
EVENING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN
INCH OF RAIN MAY BE MEASURED IN SOME LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
AHEAD OF THIS, WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. PCPN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED
AND SHOWERY FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, WITH A FEW SHOWERS THEN LINGERING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN
THE 50S. AS WE START TO GET INTO SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH ON SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY HEADING TOWARD MID WEEK WITH SOME POTENTIAL MID LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS. FOR NOW, WILL JUST ALLOW FOR SOME
LOWER END POPS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS IN SHALLOW
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HAVING ALREADY CLEARED CMH AND
LCK, THE CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST TO ALL SITES BY AROUND 22Z. THIS SHOULD LEAVE ONLY
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST WHILE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS
TO THE WEST. WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BACK TO SOUTHEAST,
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
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