053
FXUS61 KILN 130142
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
842 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND.
LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR RETURN
FOR FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
EVENING UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE EVENING FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.
EVENING ILN RAOB SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE, SUPPORTING THE MOSTLY CLEAR FORECAST. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING WITH SATELLITE SHOWING CIRRUS
SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE
DRY WEATHER IN ITS ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
THAT HAVE FORMED IN A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE, ALLOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S, WITH
UPPER 20S IN SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LOW PRESSURE,
DRIVEN BY A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AND CARRYING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE,
IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO ILLINOIS. RAIN WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
EVENING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN
INCH OF RAIN MAY BE MEASURED IN SOME LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
AHEAD OF THIS, WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. PCPN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED
AND SHOWERY FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, WITH A FEW SHOWERS THEN LINGERING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN
THE 50S. AS WE START TO GET INTO SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH ON SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY HEADING TOWARD MID WEEK WITH SOME POTENTIAL MID LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS. FOR NOW, WILL JUST ALLOW FOR SOME
LOWER END POPS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO 8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS EXPANDS
NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY.
WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BACK TO SOUTHEAST, WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS, THE RAINFALL CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z. THE
TIMING OF THE RAIN HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE 30-HOUR CVG TAF WITH
MVFR RESTRICTIONS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY BETWEEN 00Z-06Z
THURSDAY. BOTH CIG AND VIS WITHIN THE MVFR THRESHOLDS WILL BE
LIKELY DURING THE 00-06Z PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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