831
FXUS61 KILN 131111
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
611 AM EST WED NOV 13 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE
ADVANCING TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THICKENING CIRRUS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING S/W, WHICH WILL MOVE FURTHER E INTO THE OH VLY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE DAYTIME SHOULD STAY DRY LOCALLY AS
VERY DRY AIR ENTRENCHED IN THE AREA IS GRADUALLY ERODED INTO
LATE AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY RAPID SATURATION OF THE PROFILE WILL
OCCUR FROM SW TO NE THIS EVENING, ALLOWING FOR STEADY, MODERATE
RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE ILN FA DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS.
BUT UNTIL THE RAIN ARRIVES, A DRY DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S AMIDST FILTERED
SUNSHINE AND STEADY SE SFC FLOW.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
FORCING AND DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ABRUPTLY THIS
EVENING, ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RA, WHICH
WILL DRIFT TO THE ENE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE HEART
OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE STEADY RAIN WILL TRANSITION MORE TO SCT
SHRA TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST
SPORADICALLY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT HEAVIER WITH THE QPF,
OWING TO THE STRONG SUSTAINED FORCING AND LIFT AND RAPID
MOISTENING OF THE PROFILE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME. LATEST
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GREATER THAN 60% CHANCE OF AT
LEAST 1" OF RAIN FOR MANY LOCALES FROM SE IN THROUGH THE TRI-
STATE AND N KY INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL OH, WITH LESS THAN 20% CHANCE
OF 1" NEAR/N OF I-70. OVERALL, TOTAL RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 0.5"-0.75" NEAR/N OF
I-70 TO 1"-1.5" NEAR/S OF THE OH RVR.
THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A CLOUDY/DREARY DAY WITH
INTERMITTENT SHRA WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
CONDITIONS MAY NOT TREND COMPLETELY DRY UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY AS
THE LOW SLOWLY PIVOTS THROUGH THE OH VLY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
SINCE LOW LEVEL SATURATION IS LIKELY TO BE PERSISTENT THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE
MIDDLE 50S AND FORECAST LOWS ARE ARE NEAR 40 TO THE UPPER 30S.
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH. A CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY WARM FRONT.
CHANCES FOR RAIN PERSIST INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT
FRONT IS SLOWLY EXPECTED TO ENCROACH FROM THE WEST. CURRENTLY, THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT IS UNCERTAIN AS THERE ARE MANY FACTORS THAT
COULD INFLUENCE THE SYNOPTIC SETUP NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY
BEFORE WIDESPREAD RA MOVES IN FOR THE FINAL PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD. UNTIL THEN, CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION, LEADING
TO BKN/OVC HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. ESE WINDS AROUND 7-10KTS
WILL BE MAINTAINED BEFORE INCREASING SUBTLY TO OUT OF THE SE AFTER
00Z THURSDAY TO AROUND 10-15KTS.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD FROM THE SW SHORTLY AFTER 00Z,
LEADING TO A FAIRLY RAPID MOISTENING OF THE PROFILE, ALLOWING
FOR CIGS TO GO VFR TO MVFR, AND EVENTUALLY IFR, DURING THE
NIGHTTIME. AS THIS OCCURS WITH THE STEADIER RA, PREVAILING MVFR
VSBYS WILL ALSO EVOLVE AREA-WIDE TOWARD 06Z AND BEYOND. THE RA
WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY,
BUT MVFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY.
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...KC
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