780
FXUS61 KILN 132348
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
648 PM EST WED NOV 13 2024
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING ACROSS ILLINOIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN TONIGHT. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ADVECTING AHEAD OF THE LOW INTO
A REGION OF STRONG LIFT WILL RESULT IN A HEALTHY DOSE OF
RAINFALL, WITH OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
LOW, PRODUCING GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT WILL STAY
UP IN THE 40S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES AS THE WEAKENING LOW TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA TO OHIO. WITH MOST UPPER SUPPORT
SHIFTING EAST, COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH UNSTEADILY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S ON
THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN THE 40S
THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY AND FAIRLY
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH DAYS. THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT.
MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE OUT THE PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND
HELP CARVE OUT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO
POSSIBLY EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE IS STILL A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS, BUT WILL LIKELY SEE AN
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WILL RESULT IN AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO
THE 60S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS A COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES BACK INTO THE
REGION.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE TAF
SITES. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THIS WILL INITIALLY BRING MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH VFR
CEILINGS, BUT EVENTUALLY, CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TO THE IFR
CATEGORY. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 20KTS EXPECTED. THERE IS SOME
CHANCE OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z,
BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT VALUES OF SHEAR WILL STAY
BELOW 30KTS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 12Z, THOUGH SOME
LIGHTER RAIN OR SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING VISIBILITIES BACK TO MVFR OR VFR
LEVELS, BUT CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR OR LOW-END MVFR
THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HATZOS
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