412
FXUS61 KILN 140615
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
115 AM EST THU NOV 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI,
WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESE INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THE ILN CWA AND MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY
REMAIN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT, WITH DRY AIR
STILL IN PLACE IN A REGIME OF SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. DESPITE THIS,
AT 850MB AND ABOVE, THERE IS ALREADY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING. ONE GREAT EXAMPLE OF THIS WAS THE
KCVG OBSERVATION AT 0052Z, WHICH CARRIED HEAVY RAIN AND AN MVFR
VISIBILITY (5SM) WITH A CEILING OF 10000 FEET. CLEARLY, IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SATURATE, EVEN AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE ALOFT HAVE ALREADY BEGUN PRODUCING QUITE A
BIT OF RAINFALL.
THE GOING FORECAST DID NOT NEED ANY LARGE CHANGES TONIGHT. ONE
ADJUSTMENT WAS TO ADD SOME LOW-END THUNDER CHANCES TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA. A PERSISTENT AREA OF
LIGHTNING DEVELOPED A COUPLE HOURS AGO NEAR LOUISVILLE AND HAS
BEEN ADVECTING NORTHEAST WITH TIME. NUMEROUS IN-CLOUD FLASHES,
AND A FEW STRIKES, HAVE BEEN PICKED UP IN SOME OF THE ILN
KENTUCKY COUNTIES (OWEN/GALLATIN ETC). THOUGH SPC MESOANALYSIS
DOES NOT HAVE MUCH OF A DEPICTION OF ANY MUCAPE, MODELS SUGGEST
THESE STRIKES ARE OCCURRING RIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE MOST POTENT
THETA-E ADVECTION AT 700MB.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION > LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING ACROSS ILLINOIS
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ADVECTING
AHEAD OF THE LOW INTO A REGION OF STRONG LIFT WILL RESULT IN A
HEALTHY DOSE OF RAINFALL, WITH OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW, PRODUCING GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL STAY UP IN THE 40S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES AS THE WEAKENING LOW TRACKS
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA TO OHIO. WITH MOST UPPER SUPPORT
SHIFTING EAST, COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH UNSTEADILY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S ON
THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN THE 40S
THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY AND
FAIRLY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH
DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS COULD
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE OUT THE PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AND HELP CARVE OUT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO POSSIBLY EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE IS
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS, BUT WILL
LIKELY SEE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WILL RESULT
IN AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS A COOLER
AIRMASS SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH SUNRISE, A FAIRLY DECENT MID LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER
THE UPPER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS MID LEVEL
TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION. COPIOUS MOISTURE FLOWING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO
SHOWERS, SOMETIMES MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES, ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR AND VISIBILITIES WILL
MAINLY BE MVFR, THOUGH A FEW POCKETS OF IFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
IN HEAVIER RAINFALL. THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 28 KNOTS. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET, THERE IS A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR LLWS, BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW THRESHOLDS TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS.
FOR TODAY, THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
NEAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WILL WEAKEN SOME AS IT MOVES TO A
POSITION NEAR NORTHWEST OHIO BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST INTO
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
EARLY ON WILL TRANSITION TO SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AS LIFT CONTINUES WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. CEILINGS WILL
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR WHILE VISIBILITIES LIFT BACK TO VFR
OUT SIDE OF SHOWERS (MVFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED IN SHOWERS).
SOUTHERLY WINDS 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25
KNOTS WILL DIMINISH BY 18Z AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT
SOUTHEAST WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS OVER LAKE ERIE. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR WITH SOME POCKETS OF
LIFR POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. VISIBILITIES WILL VARY
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 5 AND 8 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HATZOS
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
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