418
FXUS61 KILN 140756
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
256 AM EST THU NOV 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST, THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL THEN
INFLUENCE THE AREA'S WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
FOR TODAY, A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WILL WEAKEN SOME AS IT MOVES TO A POSITION
NEAR NORTHWEST OHIO BY THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST INTO OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
EARLY ON WILL TRANSITION TO SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AS LIFT CONTINUES WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWFA BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN THEY
WILL DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. IT WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL AND DAMP WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S
NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHWEST.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
FOR TONIGHT, THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS OVER LAKE ERIE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 40S.
FOR FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION, RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS
OUR FAR EAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN START TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A
WEAK BOUNDARY THAT SAGS DOWN INTO THE AREA AND WASHES OUT ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND FOR SEVERAL DAYS MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE
DETAILS WITH THIS FEATURE. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND MODEL
VARIABILITY, WENT CLOSE TO THE BLEND AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE CATEGORIES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND THE FIRST PART
OF TUESDAY. A MUCH LARGER AND STRONGER STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO
IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE START OF A
PATTERN SHIFT TO EVENTUALLY COOLER WEATHER AND ALSO A PERIOD OF
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH SUNRISE, A FAIRLY DECENT MID LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER
THE UPPER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS MID LEVEL
TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION. COPIOUS MOISTURE FLOWING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO
SHOWERS, SOMETIMES MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES, ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR AND VISIBILITIES WILL
MAINLY BE MVFR, THOUGH A FEW POCKETS OF IFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
IN HEAVIER RAINFALL. THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 28 KNOTS. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET, THERE IS A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR LLWS, BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW THRESHOLDS TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TERMINALS.
FOR TODAY, THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
NEAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WILL WEAKEN SOME AS IT MOVES TO A
POSITION NEAR NORTHWEST OHIO BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST INTO
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
EARLY ON WILL TRANSITION TO SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AS LIFT CONTINUES WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. CEILINGS WILL
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR WHILE VISIBILITIES LIFT BACK TO VFR
OUT SIDE OF SHOWERS (MVFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED IN SHOWERS).
SOUTHERLY WINDS 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25
KNOTS WILL DIMINISH BY 18Z AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT
SOUTHEAST WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS OVER LAKE ERIE. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR WITH SOME POCKETS OF
LIFR POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. VISIBILITIES WILL VARY
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 5 AND 8 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HICKMAN
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