059
FXUS61 KILN 141429
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
929 AM EST THU NOV 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST, THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL THEN
INFLUENCE THE AREA'S WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER FAR NORTHWEST
INDIANA WILL TRACK EAST INTO NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES, AN OCCLUDING FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK INSTABILITIES OF GENERALLY 500 J/KG
OR LESS DEVELOPING ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
AS WE HEAD INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER IN THOSE AREAS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
50S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID/UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/
FOR TONIGHT, THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS OVER LAKE ERIE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 40S.
FOR FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION, RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS
OUR FAR EAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN START TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A
WEAK BOUNDARY THAT SAGS DOWN INTO THE AREA AND WASHES OUT ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND FOR SEVERAL DAYS MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE
DETAILS WITH THIS FEATURE. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND MODEL
VARIABILITY, WENT CLOSE TO THE BLEND AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE CATEGORIES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND THE FIRST PART
OF TUESDAY. A MUCH LARGER AND STRONGER STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO
IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE START OF A
PATTERN SHIFT TO EVENTUALLY COOLER WEATHER AND ALSO A PERIOD OF
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FOR TODAY, A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
NEAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WILL WEAKEN SOME AS IT MOVES TO A
POSITION NEAR NORTHWEST OHIO BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST INTO
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
EARLY ON WILL TRANSITION TO SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AS LIFT CONTINUES WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. CEILINGS WILL
VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR WHILE VISIBILITIES LIFT BACK TO VFR
OUT SIDE OF SHOWERS (MVFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED IN SHOWERS).
SOUTHERLY WINDS 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25
KNOTS WILL DIMINISH BY 18Z AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.
FOR TONIGHT, THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS OVER LAKE ERIE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR WITH SOME POCKETS OF
LIFR POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. VISIBILITIES WILL VARY
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 5 AND 8 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HICKMAN
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