395
FXUS61 KILN 150604
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
104 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS NOW CENTERED SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE METRO-DETROIT AREA. WHILE THE AXIS OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA, AND HEIGHTS ARE BEGINNING TO RISE,
COOL NW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AT 850MB IS
CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THICK STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE HAS ERODED AND MOVED EAST, WITH THE 00Z KILN SOUNDING
RELATIVELY DRY ABOVE 700MB, AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE
DRY LAYER EXTENDING DOWN TO 800MB BY 06Z. AS SUCH, THE
PRECIPITATION MODE HAS GENERALLY CHANGED FROM SHOWERS TO
DRIZZLE. MODELS ARE NEVER PERFECT AT DEPICTING DRIZZLE IN
SCENARIOS LIKE THIS, BUT PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST THAT
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
IN THE FORECAST -- TO ADD DRIZZLE AND EXTEND THE LENGTH OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MORNING. CERTAINLY THINK SOME LIGHT
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE (OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS) COULD EVEN
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY TOMORROW, BUT WILL WAIT FOR HIGHER
CONFIDENCE BEFORE MAKING THIS ADJUSTMENT. TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED UP BY A COUPLE DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
OVERNIGHT, WITH THICK MOISTURE PREVENTING TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING TOO MUCH SO FAR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION > SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH FROM IT THROUGH EASTERN INDIANA AND INTO CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. AN AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OTHERWISE, SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST INTO OUR AREA
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS WILL KEEP US IN NEUTRAL OR WEAK CAA THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE,
A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY
BEFORE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING BEGINS TO DEVELOP FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WEATHER SHOULD BE DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A
WEAKENING BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR
RETURN FOR MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A PERSISTENTLY MOIST AND UNSETTLED WEATHER REGIME WILL
ALLOW THE THREAT FOR RAIN TO LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY RELATIVELY MILD FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S ON SATURDAY, CLIMBING INTO
THE 60S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. READINGS FALL TO THE MID
40S TO MID 50S ON THURSDAY UNDER A ROUND OF COLD ADVECTION.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
PIVOT SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, AND WEAK LIFT, WILL POSE A
PATCHY DRIZZLE THREAT. CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
WITH SOME PATCHY LIFR POSSIBLE. VISIBILITIES WILL VARY BETWEEN
MVFR AND VFR WITH SOME PATCHY IFR POSSIBLE WITH DRIZZLE.
FOR TODAY, THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED AWAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, PER FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS, WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION, RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS.
FOR TONIGHT, THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION, SO AVIATORS CAN EXPECTED MVFR CEILINGS TO LINGER.
AS FOR WINDS, THEY WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 5 AND 10
KNOTS TODAY. FOR TONIGHT, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AT 5
KNOTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HICKMAN
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