144
FXUS61 KILN 142033
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
333 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO LIFT ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY. THIS WILL OFFER WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR RAIN WILL BE
OBSERVED MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AND
THEN AGAIN AT MIDWEEK AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO LIFT ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY H8 JET OF 50-55KTS WEAKENS
AS IT PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS JET
WILL OFFER FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINNING THIS EVENING.
IN RESPONSE TO THIS MOISTURE AND LIFT - EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING
THRU CENTRAL OHIO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT TO RANGE FROM THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH OVER THE SOUTHWEST TO A QUARTER INCH OVER THE NORTHEAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO PIVOT NORTHEAST THRU THE GREAT LAKES
ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AS IT PIVOTS EAST ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY AND THE STEADY RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY BY
AFTERNOON. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST PCPN SHOULD
DECREASE WITH LINGERING PATCHY DRIZZLE AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECT A LULL IN MEASURABLE PCPN OVERNIGHT
WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM THE THE MID 40S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE WITH LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WHILE TEMPERATURES
SPIKE INTO THE 50S. FORECAST RAINFALL IS EXCEEDING ONE INCH IN
MANY LOCATIONS WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ISSUES ON THE
USUAL TROUBLESOME AREA RIVERS/STREAMS CONSIDERING RAIN IS ALSO
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE QPF IS IS NOT OVERLY
EXCESSIVE SINCE THE BEST OVERLAP OF ANOMALOUS PWATS AND UPPER
FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES DROP SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS DRY WEATHER
BRIEFLY RETURNS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY AROUND
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS SECOND FRONT SINCE COLD WEATHER SNEAKS
IN BY THURSDAY. CURRENTLY, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS RAIN BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION
BEHIND THE FRONT AS A LOW PASSES THROUGH. DETAILS AND POTENTIAL
IMPACTS ARE STILL DIFFICULT TO DISCERN WITH A SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS
STILL POSSIBLE. THE PROBABILITIES POINT MOSTLY TOWARD A RAIN EVENT
WITH VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, SNOW ON THE BACK END AT THIS TIME.
COLDER AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE SECOND SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS EXIST SINCE DISTURBANCES COULD MOVE
THROUGH IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH
BEFORE LOWERING AFTER 00Z AS RAIN BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE AIRMASS MOISTENS, WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL OVERSPREADING THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z-06Z, WHICH WILL
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.
VFR CEILINGS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR, AND EVENTUALLY DROP TO
IFR, LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. PREVAILING MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STEADIEST/HEAVIEST RAIN, WITH
SOME BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...AR
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