623
FXUS61 KILN 150000
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
700 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO LIFT ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY. THIS WILL OFFER WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR RAIN WILL BE
OBSERVED MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AND
THEN AGAIN AT MIDWEEK AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO LIFT ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY H8 JET OF 50-55KTS WEAKENS
AS IT PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS JET
WILL OFFER FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINNING THIS EVENING.
IN RESPONSE TO THIS MOISTURE AND LIFT - EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING THRU
CENTRAL OHIO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT TO RANGE FROM THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH OVER THE SOUTHWEST TO A QUARTER INCH OVER THE NORTHEAST.
LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO PIVOT NORTHEAST THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AS IT PIVOTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND THE STEADY RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY BY
AFTERNOON. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST PCPN SHOULD
DECREASE WITH LINGERING PATCHY DRIZZLE AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECT A LULL IN MEASURABLE PCPN OVERNIGHT
WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM THE THE MID 40S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE WITH LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY BEFORE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WHILE TEMPERATURES
SPIKE INTO THE 50S. FORECAST RAINFALL IS EXCEEDING ONE INCH IN
MANY LOCATIONS WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ISSUES ON THE
USUAL TROUBLESOME AREA RIVERS/STREAMS CONSIDERING RAIN IS ALSO
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE QPF IS IS NOT OVERLY
EXCESSIVE SINCE THE BEST OVERLAP OF ANOMALOUS PWATS AND UPPER
FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES DROP SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS DRY
WEATHER BRIEFLY RETURNS BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE
OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY AROUND PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS SECOND FRONT
SINCE COLD WEATHER SNEAKS IN BY THURSDAY. CURRENTLY, THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING AS RAIN BEFORE
TRANSITIONING OVER TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT AS A
LOW PASSES THROUGH. DETAILS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE STILL
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN WITH A SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS STILL POSSIBLE.
THE PROBABILITIES POINT MOSTLY TOWARD A RAIN EVENT WITH VERY
LITTLE, IF ANY, SNOW ON THE BACK END AT THIS TIME.
COLDER AIR RETURNS BEHIND THE SECOND SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS EXIST SINCE DISTURBANCES
COULD MOVE THROUGH IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FOR THIS EVENING, CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST WITH WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST BETWEEN 5 AND 15
KNOTS.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ROTATE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER/MID OHIO VALLEY REGION.
MOIST ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM (DECENT LOW LEVEL JET)
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO
THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES WITH MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
IN RAIN. SOME POCKETS OF IFR VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR IN LOCALLY
HEAVIER RAIN. WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET, A PERIOD OF LLWS IS
EXPECTED, FIRST AFFECTING WESTERN TERMINALS THEN EASTERN
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 8 AND 16
KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY WEST.
ON SUNDAY, THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE EAST/NORTHEAST, EXITING OUT OF THE REGION BY 00Z. MORNING
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO MORE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WITH SOME
POCKETS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN LIFR AND
IFR WITH VISIBILITIES MAINLY MVFR. LLWS WIND SHEAR THREAT WILL
WEAKEN AND EXIT EAST. BY LATE IN THE DAY, SOME CEILINGS ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER MAY LIFT ABOVE THE 1000 FOOT LEVEL. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT, AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
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