784
FXUS61 KILN 152043
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
343 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
A MILD AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK,
WITH DRIER AND COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. UNTIL THEN, SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI TO PIVOT THRU THE
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
AS DEEPER FORCING SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST LINGERING RAIN WILL
COME TO AN END THIS EVENING.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON OVER THE AREA WITH CLOUDY SKIES
CONTINUING THRU THE NIGHT. AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...WEAK FORCING
IN THIS LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
AND FOG OVERNIGHT. AS FLOW BACKS AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS -
EXPECT STEADY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SYSTEM TO BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD SUNRISE.
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT
WITH LITTLE DIURNAL DROP. EXPECT LOWS FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH
TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A MID LEVEL TROF WILL DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY AS
90-100KT ROTATES AROUND ITS BASE. FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WILL DEVELOP AS A STRENGTHENING 50-55KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET.
RAIN WILL DEVELOP INTO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD SUNRISE AND SPREAD
NORTHEAST THE AREA BY MID MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE
WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE SCATTERED LATE IN THE DAY AND
EVENING THEN ENDING WITH THE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE MONDAY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE - ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
THAT SOUTHEAST INDIANA, NORTHERN KY, AND SOUTHWEST OHIO HAVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL TO REACH OR EXCEED AN INCH OF RAIN.
WITH SOILS SATURATED FROM TODAYS RAIN THIS WILL LEAD TO RISES
ON CREEKS AND STREAMS AND COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED RUNOFF
ISSUES. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO NEAR
60 SOUTH.
RAIN CHANCES END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY
EVENING EVENING AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 40 SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WESTERLY FLOW BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FOUND IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM EARLIER MONDAY NIGHT. CLEAR AIR AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL INFILTRATE THE CWA, WITH A GENERAL COOLING THROUGH
THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER ARKANSAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF RAINFALL
TO THE REGION FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. RAIN WILL END IN THE LATE DAY
AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM WEST TO EAST, BRINGING IN MUCH
DRIER AIR. NORTH FLOW OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE THE
RESULT OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA STRENGTHENING OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
AND QUICKLY GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER L/W TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD
PLAY OUT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES IN THE NORTHERN CWA
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN.
AS THESE FEATURES CROSS EAST, ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE REINFORCED BY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MID LEVEL LOW TO TRACK THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES DECREASING AND BY MID AFTN. SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH SOME LIFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE IN IFR CATEGORY MONDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER SUNRISE AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES IN RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR
TO IFR RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE.
AS 50-55KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE AREA THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LLWS POSSIBLE MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED THIS MENTION OF
LLWS AT KCVG AND KLUK AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10-12KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 10KTS THIS EVENING AND BECOMING
MORE SOUTHERLY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WILL GUST UP TO 25
KTS MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT, AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...AR
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