710
FXUS61 KILN 160543
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1243 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
A MILD AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK,
WITH DRIER AND COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. UNTIL THEN, SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
SHALLOW MOISTURE, ABOUT 1 KM DEEP, WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT IN A
A MOIST, SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. CURRENT PATCHY AND AREAS OF FOG
ARE OCCURRING DUE TO LIGHTER WIND FLOW AND SOME HOLES IN THE
CLOUD COVER. FOR OVERNIGHT, PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL BECOME
MORE FOCUSED TO LOCATIONS THAT ARE HIGHER IN ELEVATION,
INTERSECTING SOME OF THE LOWER CEILINGS TO PRODUCE LOWER
VISIBILITIES. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. IT LOOKS LIKE
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE OR JUST A BIT LATER FOR OUR WESTERN
ZONES.
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT
WITH LITTLE DIURNAL DROP. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 FAR SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
A MID LEVEL TROF WILL DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY
AS 90-100KT ROTATES AROUND ITS BASE. FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP AS A STRENGTHENING 50-55KT SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET. RAIN WILL DEVELOP INTO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD SUNRISE
AND SPREAD NORTHEAST THE AREA BY MID MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE SCATTERED LATE IN
THE DAY AND EVENING THEN ENDING WITH THE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
MONDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE - ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST THAT SOUTHEAST INDIANA, NORTHERN KY, AND SOUTHWEST OHIO
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO REACH OR EXCEED AN INCH OF RAIN.
WITH SOILS SATURATED FROM TODAYS RAIN THIS WILL LEAD TO RISES
ON CREEKS AND STREAMS AND COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED RUNOFF
ISSUES. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO NEAR
60 SOUTH.
RAIN CHANCES END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY
EVENING EVENING AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOWS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 40 SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
WESTERLY FLOW BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BE FOUND IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FROM EARLIER MONDAY NIGHT. CLEAR AIR
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL INFILTRATE THE CWA, WITH A GENERAL
COOLING THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER ARKANSAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND
OF RAINFALL TO THE REGION FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. RAIN WILL END
IN THE LATE DAY AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM WEST TO
EAST, BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR. NORTH FLOW OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY WILL BE THE RESULT OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
STRENGTHENING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
NEAR THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND QUICKLY GET SHUNTED TO THE
EAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER L/W TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD PLAY OUT WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES IN THE NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN.
AS THESE FEATURES CROSS EAST, ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE REINFORCED BY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD AIR WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A MIX OF IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH A CORRIDOR OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS (DUE TO BR)
DRAPED FROM NEAR KDAY TO KCMH/KLCK. THERE MAY BE FLUCTUATIONS
FROM TIME TO TIME IN THE VSBYS ACROSS THE NRN SITES, BUT
PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS SHOULD PERSIST, CONTINUING EVEN ONCE THE
SOLID SHIELD OF SHRA ARRIVES BY MID-MORNING. THIS WIDESPREAD
SHRA WILL OVERSPREAD FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 12Z-15Z, WITH THE
STEADIEST/HEAVIEST BETWEEN 15Z-18Z, BEFORE BECOMING MORE ISO/SCT
IN NATURE BY 21Z ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS THE EXPECTATION FOR
ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING
FRONT ITSELF IN THE SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD AROUND 00Z, SO
CONDITIONS MAY NOT TREND COMPLETELY DRY UNTIL AFTER 02Z OR SO.
WITH THE SHRA, MVFR/IFR VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL AREA-WIDE.
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON, SOME SW LLWS ON THE ORDER OF 40-45KTS
WILL EVOLVE LOCALLY, COMPLEMENTED BY A STRENGTHENING OF SFC
WINDS AS WELL. AT THE SFC, SW WINDS OF 15-18 KTS, WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25KTS, ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z-02Z BEFORE BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY AND TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE PERIOD TO AROUND
10-12KTS.
VSBYS WILL RETURN TO VFR AFTER THE FROPA, WITH CIGS TRENDING
BACK TO MVFR BEFORE SCATTERING OUT TOWARD 06Z TUESDAY AND
BEYOND.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY. SOME
MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/AR
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...KC
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