944
FXUS61 KILN 161424
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
924 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
A MILD AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK,
WITH SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN AT THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOLLOWING A CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE WEAKENING CLOSED LOW TO THE E, A
DEEPENING/DIGGING TROF IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUT THE OH VLY IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT/FORCING WITH
ROBUST MOISTURE/MASS TRANSPORT NE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THIS ROUND OF RAIN WILL BE FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE, SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL BE
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY NEAR/S OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR. THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE, WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
TWO IN/NEAR THE TRI-STATE LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE AN
INITIAL SURGE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO MID AFTERNOON, WITH
ADDITIONAL SCT ACTIVITY FOCUSING ALONG THE EASTWARD- ADVANCING FRONT
BY THIS EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE, INCLUDING ENSEMBLE DATASETS,
SUGGEST ONLY MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR NEAR/GREATER THAN 1" OF RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GREATEST PROBS (STILL GENERALLY <20%) NEAR THE
TRI- STATE, PARTICULARLY WITHIN A CORRIDOR NEAR RIPLEY/SWITZERLAND
COS IN TO HAMILTON/CLERMONT COS OH AND POINT FURTHER SW. OF COURSE,
THE PROSPECT OF AN INCH OF RAIN TYPICALLY WOULDN'T RAISE ANY
EYEBROWS, BUT IT WILL BE COMING IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEELS OF THE
WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH FROM SUNDAY, SO SOILS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SOGGY/SATURATED AND LESS RECEPTIVE TO
ABSORPTION SHOULD AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN FALL TODAY. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME VERY ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES IN/NEAR THE TRI-STATE AND,
AT THE VERY LEAST, SHOULD CAUSE SOME RISES ON AREA WATERWAYS. BUT AT
THIS JUNCTURE, GIVEN THE MEAGER SIGNAL FOR A HEAVIER (>= 1") SWATH
OF RAIN, EVEN ACROSS THE SW THIRD OF THE ILN FA, THERE IS JUST NOT
ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO WARRANT A BIGGER CONCERN FOR LARGER-
SCALE/WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS.
THE ONLY OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST FOR THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD IS GOING TO
BE THE GUSTY WINDS THAT DEVELOP MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
SW WINDS COULD GUST TO 25-30KTS AT TIMES BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE THIS
EVENING FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
QUIETER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THIS RESPITE WILL AGAIN BE SOMEWHAT BRIEF AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE OH VLY BY WEDNESDAY.
REGARDLESS, DRY CONDITIONS WILL EVOLVE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE TN VLY.
TEMPS TONIGHT BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S (EC IN AND WC OH) TO
THE LOWER 40S IN THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY INTO NE KY BEFORE
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S, RESPECTIVELY, ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE MAY EVEN SEE THE
SUN ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY S OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE NEXT WAVE IN AN ONGOING WAVE TRAIN ARRIVES TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THERE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO PUSH THE HIGHEST QPF
FOOTPRINT TO OUR SOUTH, ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO HANG ONTO IT'S MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION. THIS IS
SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL, GIVEN THAT WE'RE NOW ONLY ~40 HOURS OUT. SHOULD
THE GFS SOLUTION END UP DOMINATING, WE MAY END UP WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL HYDRO CONCERNS. HOWEVER, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
MOMENT, WILL CONTINUE TO STICK WITH MORE OF A BLEND AND HOLD OFF
MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
SENSIBLY SPEAKING, RAINFALL ARRIVES AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY (TEMPS IN THE 40S-
50S), BUT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WILL BE FOR AREAS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.
POPS DECREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING BEHIND A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT
AND WE MAY EVEN SEE SOME WINTRY MIX AS THINGS WIND DOWN. ALONG THIS
LINE OF THOUGHT, THIS SYSTEM CARRIES COLD AIR MUCH FARTHER SOUTH,
AND OUR 850MB TEMPS MIGHT END UP AROUND -10 TO -12 RANGE WITH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SURFACE TEMPS DROPPING TO THE 20S.
THURSDAY ARRIVES MUCH COOLER, WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE RESIDUAL
CYCLONIC FLOW. YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW AS
A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION NEAR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALREADY IN PLACE AND POSSIBLY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA, THOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS MEAGER.
THE COMING WEEKEND WILL REMAIN COLD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO THE TEENS, THOUGH WE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY, WITH NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE OF THE ODD
FLURRY.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A MIX OF IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAYTIME, WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBYS (DUE TO DZ/BR) TO GO ALONG
WITH IT THROUGH THE 2-3 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE MAY BE
FLUCTUATIONS FROM TIME TO TIME IN THE VSBYS, BUT PREVAILING MVFR
VSBYS SHOULD PERSIST, CONTINUING EVEN ONCE THE SOLID SHIELD OF
SHRA ARRIVES. THIS WIDESPREAD SHRA WILL OVERSPREAD FROM SW TO NE
THROUGH 15Z, WITH THE STEADIEST/HEAVIEST BETWEEN 16Z-20Z,
BEFORE BECOMING MORE ISO/SCT IN NATURE BY 21Z ONCE AGAIN. THERE
IS THE EXPECTATION FOR ADDITIONAL SCT SHRA TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
EASTWARD-ADVANCING FRONT ITSELF IN THE SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD
AROUND 00Z, SO CONDITIONS MAY NOT TREND COMPLETELY DRY UNTIL
AFTER 03Z OR SO. WITH THE SHRA, MVFR/IFR VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL
AREA-WIDE.
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON, SOME SW LLWS ON THE ORDER OF 40-45KTS
WILL EVOLVE LOCALLY, COMPLEMENTED BY A STRENGTHENING OF SFC
WINDS AS WELL. AT THE SFC, SW WINDS OF 15-18 KTS, WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25KTS, ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z-02Z BEFORE BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY AND TAPERING OFF PAST 06Z TO AROUND 10-12KTS.
VSBYS WILL RETURN TO VFR AFTER THE FROPA, WITH CIGS TRENDING
BACK TO MVFR BEFORE SCATTERING OUT TOWARD 06Z TUESDAY AND
BEYOND.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY. SOME
MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...CAMPBELL/KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page