878
FXUS61 KILN 161916
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
216 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BECOMES MORE SHOWERY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS END TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
GIVING WAY TO DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BEFORE
TEMPERATURES COOL OFF FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL, WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF A LLJ IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE RAINFALL RATES ARE BEING OBSERVED WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER 1-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BEFORE 4PM. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED,
LOW END NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR AND
SOUTHWEST OF CINCINNATI WHERE A 1/2 INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY
FALLEN THIS MORNING. LUCKILY, AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NOT
MODELED TO HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIAL RISES DESPITE THE MODERATE RAIN
TOTALS.
AFTER THIS NEXT ROUND OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION TO START THE
AFTERNOON, PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE SHOWERY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THIS EVENING. SHOWERS FINALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
THANKS TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING BEFORE CALMING LATE
OVERNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S LATE OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY WHILE
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS BY DECEMBER
STANDARDS ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SOME SUN CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY FILLS AND PROGRESSES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. BY
THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TRI-STATE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. THE RAIN
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES SINCE FORCING AT THE NOSE OF A
LLJ OVERLAPS FAIRLY HIGH PWATS. THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SHOULD
LEAD TO A FAIRLY WET COMMUTE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE I-71
CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A SIMILAR SETUP ON WEDNESDAY WILL MIMIC THE SYSTEM OVER US TODAY
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ITS
TRACK WILL LIKELY CROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA, PRODUCING ANOTHER
SOAKING RAIN EVENT LIKELY ENDING BEFORE OR AT LEAST BY NIGHTFALL.
THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON, AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN THE MORNING AND THEN DROP AS NORTHWEST WINDS KICK IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE
20S, AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO
NEAR OR JUST IN THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTHERN KY.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAY AS A
CLOUD COVER BLANKETS THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A L/W TROUGH
EARLY ON FRIDAY. COLD AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY PRODUCE SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW - PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER, THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH
TO HAVE A MORE WIDESPREAD DAY OF PASSING FLURRIES ON FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP A COOLING
NORTHEAST FLOW, AS A SECONDARY UPPER S/W REINFORCES THE GENERAL
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PUSH THE WEEKEND TO BE THE COLDEST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS WITHIN 2-3 DEG ON EITHER SIDE OF
30, AND LOWS IN THE TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT, MID TEENS TO NEAR 20
DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
RETURN FLOW SETS UP TO PUSH THE REGION'S HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40 DEGREES.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS BEING OBSERVED. TO START THE TAF
PERIOD, MORE STEADY RAIN WITH IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
LARGELY PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 2000Z. AFTER 2000Z, IFR CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND WHILE THE RAIN BECOMES MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE
THEREBY IMPROVING VISIBILITIES. BETWEEN 0000Z-0400Z, FROPA IS
EXPECTED. SHOWERS END AND CEILINGS IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 0000Z AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND
REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL AFTER 0600Z. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
AFTER 1200Z TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK... MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY. SOME MVFR
CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAMPBELL
NEAR TERM...CAMPBELL
SHORT TERM...CAMPBELL
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CAMPBELL
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