910
FXUS61 KILN 162338
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
638 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BECOMES MORE SHOWERY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS END TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
GIVING WAY TO DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BEFORE
TEMPERATURES COOL OFF FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL, WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF A LLJ IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE RAINFALL RATES ARE BEING OBSERVED
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER 1-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA BEFORE 4PM. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED, LOW END NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR AND
SOUTHWEST OF CINCINNATI WHERE A 1/2 INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY
FALLEN THIS MORNING. LUCKILY, AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NOT
MODELED TO HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIAL RISES DESPITE THE MODERATE RAIN
TOTALS.
AFTER THIS NEXT ROUND OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION TO START THE
AFTERNOON, PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE SHOWERY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THIS EVENING. SHOWERS FINALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
THANKS TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING BEFORE CALMING LATE
OVERNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S LATE OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY
WHILE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
BY DECEMBER STANDARDS ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. SOME SUN CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF I-70.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY FILLS AND PROGRESSES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE TRI-STATE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. THE RAIN COULD BE
LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES SINCE FORCING AT THE NOSE OF A LLJ
OVERLAPS FAIRLY HIGH PWATS. THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SHOULD LEAD
TO A FAIRLY WET COMMUTE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE I-71
CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A SIMILAR SETUP ON WEDNESDAY WILL MIMIC THE SYSTEM OVER US
TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. ITS TRACK WILL LIKELY CROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA,
PRODUCING ANOTHER SOAKING RAIN EVENT LIKELY ENDING BEFORE OR AT
LEAST BY NIGHTFALL.
THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE
ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON, AND TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE MORNING AND THEN DROP AS NORTHWEST
WINDS KICK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS BY THURSDAY
MORNING WILL BE IN THE 20S, AND DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO NEAR OR JUST IN THE LOWER 40S OVER
NORTHERN KY.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAY
AS A CLOUD COVER BLANKETS THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A L/W
TROUGH EARLY ON FRIDAY. COLD AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY PRODUCE
SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW - PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE SHOULD NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO HAVE A MORE WIDESPREAD DAY OF PASSING
FLURRIES ON FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP A COOLING
NORTHEAST FLOW, AS A SECONDARY UPPER S/W REINFORCES THE GENERAL
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PUSH THE WEEKEND TO BE THE
COLDEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS WITHIN 2-3 DEG ON
EITHER SIDE OF 30, AND LOWS IN THE TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT, MID
TEENS TO NEAR 20 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP TO PUSH THE REGION'S
HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FOR THIS EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LLWS WILL
BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, PRECIPITATION WILL END AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN, EXCEPT
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. GUSTY WEST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH.
ON TUESDAY, UNDER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD 00Z AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVER
THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY
WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAMPBELL
NEAR TERM...CAMPBELL
SHORT TERM...CAMPBELL
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page