090
FXUS61 KILN 171450
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
950 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY BEFORE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ON FRIDAY. ARCTIC AIR
COMES BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A WARMING
TREND EVOLVES FOR CHRISTMAS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY.
DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS, MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID
40S ACROSS THE NORTH, TO LOWER 50S INTO SOUTHEAST INDIANA,
SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
ANOTHER QUICK-HITTING SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE ILN FA DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD, ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY
MORE SUPPRESSED/SOUTHERN TRACK. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF RAIN PERHAPS CLIPPING THE FAR SE FRINGES OF THE
LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH A CORRIDOR
FROM ROBERTSON CO KY TO SCIOTO CO OH MOST LIKELY TO SEE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 1/2 INCH. LIGHTER AMOUNTS, ON
THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS, ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE
I-71 CORRIDOR, WITH AROUND TENTH OF AN INCH FAVORED NW OF I-71.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN ABOUT 10Z-18Z
WEDNESDAY, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EVOLVING LATE IN THE DAY AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS BACK IN FROM THE NW. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A BRIEF RA/SN MIX IN THE FAR N (CENTRAL OH), BUT THE
PREDOMINANT PTYPE SHOULD BE RA AREA-WIDE.
TEMPS TONIGHT DIP INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN EC IN AND WC THROUGH
CENTRAL OH TO AROUND 40 DEGREES
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THE COLD FRONT HAVE JUST PASSED THROUGH THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDED, USHERING A BLAST OF COLD AIR. WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE
RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW. THURSDAY, WE STAY DRY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 30S ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70, LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE
OHIO RIVER. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS FALL TO THE UPPER 20S.
WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM THAT WILL
WORK THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW, THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO
WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY AND SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS
IN AND WITH FRIDAY'S HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S, ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY BE SNOW
(NORTHERN COUNTIES) OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX (SOUTHERN COUNTIES). THE
CLIPPER WILL REINFORCE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO -
10 TO -12 ISH. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL TO THE LOW 20S.
AS SUCH, WE'LL HAVE A PRETTY COLD WEEKEND. RIDGING MOVES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND WE STAY DRY, HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY. SAT/SUN DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY REACH THE MID/LOW 30S WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS TANK INTO THE LOW 20S/TEENS. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, SETTING US
UP FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A DISTURBANCE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SOME SCT/BKN CIRRUS IS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z FROM TIME-TO-TIME
BEFORE THICKER/MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OVERSPREAD FROM THE SW
THEREAFTER. CIGS WILL TREND FROM VFR TO MVFR, AND EVENTUALLY
IFR, TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED BY/AFTER 12Z, WITH BR EXPECTED EVEN OUTSIDE OF SHRA
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
WSW WINDS AROUND 8-12KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME
BEFORE GOING LIGHT/VRB/CALM TOWARD 00Z AND BEYOND. WINDS WILL GO
MORE EASTERLY AT AROUND 5KTS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS LIKELY WEDNESDAY. MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KC
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