177
FXUS61 KILN 172041
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
341 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING, AND THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ON FRIDAY. ARCTIC AIR
COMES BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND BEFORE A WARMING
TREND EVOLVES FOR CHRISTMAS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE HAS HELPED PROMOTE A RETURN TO SOME
SUNSHINE TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH
TO MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
AS QUICKLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST, A SYSTEM WILL
RAPIDLY APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
THIS WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, AND THE LEADING
EDGE OF PRECIPITATION, EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN, WILL
PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA
LATE TONIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH (WHERE IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY) TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUCH OF
THIS WILL BE RAIN, HOWEVER CAN'T RULE OUT A LITTLE WET SNOW
MIXING IN AT THE ONSET ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL OR
CENTRAL OHIO. WHILE MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE MEASURABLE
RAINFALL, THE LATEST TREND IS FOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO RESIDE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA - BUT EVEN THIS LOOKS
MAINLY IN THE 1/2 INCH TO 1 INCH RANGE. RAIN CHANCES WILL
GENERALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHERN AREAS COULD SEE A LITTLE SNOW MIX IN TOWARD THE END,
BUT NO ACCUMULATION NOR IMPACT IS EXPECTED. DRIER AIR MOVES IN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE SOUTH. COLDER AIR MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S COMMON ACROSS THE CWA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS THE COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION, CLOUDY BUT QUIET CONDITIONS
UNDER CAA FOR THURSDAY. WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, ANY ATTEMPT AT WAA WILL BE DISRUPTED BY A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S.
THE CLIPPER WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY, THOUGH NOT MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SO WHILE IT'LL
BRING MOSTLY SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE
FORECAST AREA, LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD STRUGGLE TO YIELD EVEN JUST A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION BASED ON CURRENT THINKING.
HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, BUT STILL EXPECTING LOW QPF
AMOUNTS AND THEREFOR NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURE PROFILE A
BIT TRICKY, WITH GENERALLY MID 30S MOST OF THE AREA, BUT INTO THE
UPPER 30S ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR.
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BUT LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND THE CLIPPER
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 20-25.
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY NEAR 30 TO APPROACHING MID 30S IN THE
SOUTH, WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MORE OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING
BRINGING LOWS IN THE TEENS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS, BRINGING A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH A RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SOME CIRRUS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON,
THEN CLOUDS INCREASE AND LOWER TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SYSTEM WHICH
WILL BRING RAIN TO MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK. INITIALLY WHEN RAIN
BEGINS, CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE VFR, HOWEVER DO EXPECT A
DETERIORATION TO AT LEAST MVFR WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS.
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IFR
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. EVEN AFTER THE RAIN ENDS/DEPARTS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER.
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING, THEN
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE WINDING UP NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...BPP
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