655
FXUS61 KILN 181729
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1229 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TODAY BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY,
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WARMER AIR WILL SLOWLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING
BY CHRISTMAS EVE.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
THE HEAVIEST OF THE STEADY PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING OUT OF
THE ILN FORECAST AREA BY 11AM, WITH SOME LIGHTER PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON -- PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE TEMPERATURE TREND HAS BEEN FOR
A SLOW RISE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH THE COLDEST SITE (KDLZ)
REPORTING 32 DEGREES THROUGH ABOUT 12Z, BUT THIS HAS NOW
INCREASED TO 34 DEGREES AS OF 13Z. STILL COULD SEE A VERY SMALL
AMOUNT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN CWA AS THE LIGHTER
AND PATCHIER RADAR ECHOES PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS, BUT THE TEMPERATURE TREND (INCLUDING ROAD TEMPERATURES)
WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS OVERSPREADING THE ILN FA FROM THE
SW, WITH A WET MORNING COMMUTE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCAL SPOTS
THIS MORNING. EARLIER IN THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME, AMIDST MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS, GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS HAD ALLOWED FOR SFC AIR TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER
20S/LOWER 30S FOR A FEW LOCALES, ESPECIALLY RURAL/SHELTERED
AREAS. HOWEVER, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THICKER CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PCPN, AIR TEMPS ARE RISING ABOVE FREEZING
PROGRESSIVELY FROM SW TO NE, MEANING THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL
BE RAIN FOR MOST AREAS. THIS BEING SAID, AIR TEMPS WILL BE
SLOWEST TO RISE WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM WC THROUGH CENTRAL OH
THROUGH MID-MORNING, MEANING THAT THESE AREAS WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A RA/SN MIX, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME
SLEET. ADDITIONALLY, EVEN IF AIR TEMPS RISE TO 33F OR 34F PRIOR
TO THE ONSET OF PCPN, ELEVATED SURFACES (INCLUDING BRIDGES,
TREES, RAILINGS, CARS, ETC.) MAY REMAIN NEAR/BELOW FREEZING FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD. THEREFORE, THERE MAY BE A FEW INSTANCES OF
FREEZING OF RAIN ON-CONTACT WITH SUBFREEZING/ELEVATED SURFACES,
EVEN IF AIR TEMPS ARE JUST ABOVE 32F. WHILE THIS SHOULDN'T LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD TRAVEL ISSUES (EXCEPT ON BRIDGES), IF STEADY
SLEET OR SNOW IS ABLE TO MIX IN EVEN BRIEFLY, THERE COULD BE
ISOLATED SLICK SPOTS TO CONTEND WITH IN WC/CENTRAL OH THROUGH
THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE CORRIDOR MOST LIKELY TO SEE MORE SNOW
THAN RAIN (AND THUS, THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ON UNTREATED SURFACES) THROUGH 16Z
IS WITHIN A ZONE FROM SHELBY/AUGLAIZE COS TO DELAWARE/LICKING
COS OH. THIS POTENTIAL HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE HWO FOR
AWARENESS PURPOSES.
S OF I-71 IN PARTS OF THE TRI-STATE/N KY, STEADY RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON, WITH THE GREATEST RAINFALL ON
THE ORDER OF AROUND 1/2 OF AN INCH FOCUSING NEAR AN AXIS FROM
OWEN CO KY TO SCIOTO CO OH AND POINTS FURTHER TO THE S. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AREA-WIDE FOR LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING
THE FROPA, WITH ONLY A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL OH. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN THE
DGZ WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MEAGER LATE TONIGHT, SO FLURRY
ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE TOO WIDESPREAD.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
DRIER/COLDER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE CAA REGIME. TEMPS
TONIGHT DIP INTO THE MID 20S IN THE NW TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE
SE BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S,
RESPECTIVELY, ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVC THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY, EVEN AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE REGION.
LL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, POISED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE START OF THE EXTENDED ARRIVES DRY AND CHILLY, WITH THURSDAY
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF ILLINOIS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH ITS
MAIN IMPACTS FELT FRIDAY DAYTIME HOURS.
DESPITE THE SYSTEM BEING RATHER MOISTURE STARVED, WE'RE STILL
EXPECTING A LITTLE BIT OF SNOWFALL, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-71 AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROLLS RIGHT OVER THE AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRETTY GOOD SATURATION THROUGH THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE AND THE ENTIRE COLUMN LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT (FOR RIGHT NOW AT LEAST) THE MORE ROBUST FORCING/
NEGATIVE OMEGA LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA, WHICH MAY INHIBIT
MORE ENHANCED SNOWFALL. EVEN SO, DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS THAT ABOUT
AN INCH OF SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL, LIKELY ACCUMULATING ON GRASSY
AREAS. NOT ANTICIPATING TOO MANY TRAVEL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME GIVEN
THAT SNOW WILL FALL DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING NORTH OF I-70 WITH AREAS NEARER
TO THE OHIO RIVER REACHING THE MID/UPPER 30S. UNFORTUNATELY, WITH
WIND GUSTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON REACHING 20 MPH OR SO, FEELS LIKE TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 20S.
AFTER THE CLIPPER MOVES EAST, SNOWFALL TAPERS OFF BY SUNSET AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS REINFORCED INTO THE AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT'S LOWS FALL
INTO THE LOW 20S AND TEENS. ANY MELTED SNOWFALL FROM FRIDAY DAY WILL
HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR REFREEZE OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND BECOMES
THE PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCER FOR THE WEEKEND. THE AREA REMAINS DRY
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THOUGH COLD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S/LOW 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS, POSSIBLY EVEN
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH OF I-70.
BY THE START OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK, WE'LL BE ON THE CUSP OF A
MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE AND SUBSEQUENT WARMING TREND. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS TO THE REGION.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR A DISTURBANCE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SOMETIME AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE (PERHAPS
DURING AM HOURS?). STILL A BIT TOO FAR OUT TO NAIL DOWN THE
SPECIFICS. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION TYPE DOES LOOK TO BE RAIN.
WHILE CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TIMING IS STILL LOW AT
THIS TIME, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE ON AN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH RIDGE
THAT WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL HERALD IN
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
STEADY RAIN IS MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE TAF SITES. WHILE
PREVAILING CEILINGS SHOULD SETTLE INTO MVFR VALUES, SOME
PERSISTING IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY CONTINUE WITH LIGHT
RAIN THROUGH AROUND 19Z.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z.
CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MVFR, THOUGH SOME BREAKS TO IFR
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KCVG/KLUK/KDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL THEN PERSIST INTO TOMORROW, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
MID-MORNING.
NORTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT, AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK... MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY ON
FRIDAY WITH SNOW. THE MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC/HATZOS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...HATZOS
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