294
FXUS61 KILN 190843
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
343 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
ALTHOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY, MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO MAKE INROADS INTO THE
REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY, BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
DEPART FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH
COLDER AIR PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING BY MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. DESPITE
THE SURFACE HIGH, IT APPEARS THAT STRATOCUMLUS CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, WHICH WILL
KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLOUDY. THUS, DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE LIMITED.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO THE UPPER 30S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO MAKE INROADS INTO OUR REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD
PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF
SNOW, ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND EAST CENTRAL INDIANA.
GIVEN THAT MOST ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING,
MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD MELT. HOWEVER, A FEW SLICK SPOTS COULD
OCCUR ON THE TYPICAL ELEVATED BRIDGES/OVERPASSES WHERE PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES COULD BE AROUND FREEZING. LOWS WILL FALL IN THE
LOWER 30S.
ON FRIDAY, THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OHIO. SOME WARMING AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ATTENDENT COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW SOME RAIN TO MIX IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR THE
WESTERN HALF. BY LATE IN THE DAY, THE EASTERN HALF SHOULD SEE
THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF WITH A HALF INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
30S WEST TO THE MID 30S EAST.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES AWAY, COLDER AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTH INTO THE AREA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
IN THE EVENING, LEAVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DEEP AND COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A GOOD BIT
OF CLOUD COVER. WITH THE LIMITED SUNSHINE AND COLD ADVECTION,
HIGHS WILL BE 2-3 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 30. HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH MAKES AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION, WHICH WILL TURN
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO A MORE EAST-NORTHEAST
DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WILL SEE RETURN FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHEAST, ALONG WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS. THIS WILL GET MORE
NOTICE ON MONDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOLIDLY FROM THE SOUTH AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO LOW 40S SOUTH.
MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT QUICK ON THE ONSET OF PRECIP LATE
MONDAY AND INTO THE EVENING. IF THE EARLIER SCENARIO PLAYS OUT,
THERE WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO BEGIN THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. CONTINUING THIS EARLY POSSIBLE
START TO PRECIP, ANY RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT MONDAY.
ON MONDAY NIGHT, LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL LAY OUT
A COLD FRONT THROUGH IA AND NW MO. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS IT GETS
CLOSER. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN
NEAR THE I-71 CORRIDOR AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY, WITH RAIN EXPECTED
FOR MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MODELS DIVERGE IN MASS FIELDS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT
STILL KEEP A SOLID BIT OF PRECIP OVER THE CWA THAT LOOKS TO END
WEDNESDAY EVENING. OVERNIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHUNTS
ANY PRECIP TO THE SOUTH AND TURNS WINDS EASTERLY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
DESPITE A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT, STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN STUCK UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. MOST CEILINGS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 K AND
3 K FEET, BUT SOME POCKETS OF 1 K TO 2 K FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS WILL
DIMINISH TOWARD 12Z, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
FOR TODAY, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO VEER FROM EAST, TO SOUTHEAST, THEN SOUTH AROUND 5
KNOTS. GIVEN TIME OF THE YEAR AND SHORT DAYLIGHT HOURS, AM
CONCERNED THAT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ERODING, SO WILL REMAIN
PESSIMISTIC AND KEEP CEILINGS, AND KEEP THEM IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY (2 K TO 3 K FEET).
FOR TONIGHT, ATTENTION TURNS TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FORM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION LATE. THIS HAS BEEN NOTED BY THE VCSH AT
THE 30 HOUR KCVG TERMINAL.
OUTLOOK...IFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS MAY
LINGER INTO SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HICKMAN
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