540
FXUS61 KILN 201916
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
216 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY, WITH DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING BY MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 2PM, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED ESE INTO WEST
VIRGINIA, AND IS BEING ABSORBED INTO THE GENERAL LOWER PRESSURES
OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE US. THE AXIS OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
HAS ALSO CLEARED THROUGH THE ILN CWA, SO FORCING HAS BEGUN TO
DIMINISH OVER THE REGION -- WITH STEADY PRECIPITATION NOW COMING
TO AN END. IN THE COLD ADVECTION FLOW, SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THROUGH THE DAY, THIS WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND BOUNDARY LAYER T/TD PROFILES. WHERE
SNOW FALLS, ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR (A
FEW TENTHS AT MOST, ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS).
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEGUN A SHIFT -- NOW LARGELY OUT OF
THE WEST, AND IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING TO THE NNW. AS THIS
OCCURS, SOME 20KT-25KT WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EVENING. MIN TEMPS LOOK LIKE LOWER 20S IN THE NW CWA, RANGING
TO UPPER 20S IN THE SE CWA. AS TEMPERATURES FALL, THERE MAY BE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR REFREEZING, BUT THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME DRYING
OF ROAD SURFACES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS PRECIPITATION
LARGELY COMES TO AN END AND WIND SPEEDS INCREASE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ON SATURDAY, A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS REGION OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE ILN CWA, WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY AT ABOUT 5-10 KNOTS. THE DAY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY, THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN
DIURNAL CLOUD COVER BY 15Z-18Z AT THE TOP OF A WELL-MIXED LAYER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WITH QUIET CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT,
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SUNDAY WILL BE THE LAST COLD DAY BEFORE A SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP
OCCURS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. FOR SUNDAY, FORECAST HIGHS
REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS DROP
INTO THE LOWER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE HIGH STILL EXERTS IT'S
INFLUENCE.
ON MONDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
LIFTING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. FROPA IS EXPECTED
TO BE DRY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OCCURRING DURING
THE DAY. A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE INTO THE 40S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A
WEAK COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES SOUTH.
THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO FEATURE LOW END RAIN
CHANCES WITH A STALLED FRONT REMAINING NEAR OR IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. DETAILS SURROUNDING EXACT PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME DUE TO FORCING BE WEAK. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
STRONG SIGNAL FOR MILD, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
END OF WORK WEEK. FORECAST HIGHS REACH THE 50S BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA.
STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WITH LIGHTER AND MORE INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED
WHERE IT IS SNOWING, WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES WHERE IT IS RAINING.
CEILINGS REMAIN GENERALLY IFR ACROSS THE AREA. VFR VISIBILITIES
ARE EXPECTED BY EVENING, THOUGH LOWER-END MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR WINDS, WESTERLY WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NNW, WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20
KNOT RANGE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 04Z.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT OR SCATTER OUT INTO THE
VFR RANGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH NNW FLOW SETTLING IN AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT TIMES TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...HATZOS
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