833
FXUS61 KILN 131132
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
632 AM EST MON JAN 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
A DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY
WHILE FRIGID TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD INTO
THE OHIO TODAY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT TODAY,
WITH READINGS REMAINING NEARLY STEADY IN THE 20S. WHILE WE START
THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WE COULD SEE A FEW MORE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. WITH THE SNOW PACK, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS BY MORNING. WITH WINDS
REMAINING IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE, WIND CHILL VALUES COULD DROP
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.
ANOTHER REINFORCING DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TROUGH ON TUESDAY. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH BRINGING A SWATH OF VERY LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE CWA FROM
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE COLD AIR MASS, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
WITHIN THE DGZ FOR EFFICIENT SNOWFLAKE PRODUCTION. MODEL SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS ARE ABOVE 20:1. THIS LEADS TO MAYBE UP TO AN
INCH OF LIGHT, FLUFFY SNOW BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT A FEW
DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 20 BY THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL.
LOWEST WIND CHILL WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
LIKELY END UP NEEDING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
A SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A FRONT BRUSHING BY THE AREA TO THE NORTH. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT A LITTLE SNOW COULD CLIP CENTRAL OHIO BUT CHANCES
LOOK TO BE LESS 20 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPRESS
THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH, AND ONCE IT PASSES A MODIFIED HIGH WILL BUILD
BACK IN. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SPREAD WITHIN THE SOLUTIONS, IT DOES APPEAR
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS THIS WILL BRING
RAIN AND NOT WINTRY WEATHER. MOST LIKELY TIME FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM,
COLDER AIR WILL RETURN.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LAYERS OF VFR CLOUDS WITH PATCHES OF MVFR CLOUDS WILL DECREASE A
BIT TO START THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE RE-FORMING LATER THIS MORNING
IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. THERE IS A LITTLE LOWER
CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL IN THE DETAILS FOR TODAY DUE TO THE FACT
THAT THERE IS NO CLEAR SIGNAL WHETHER CLOUDS WITH BASES BELOW
3,000 FEET WILL HAVE ENOUGH COVERAGE TO CARRY A PERSISTENT
CEILING. THEREFORE, HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CEILINGS ABOVE THIS
THRESHOLD AND WILL NEED TO ADJUST AS TRENDS ALLOW. OTHERWISE,
FAVORABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND A STEADY BREEZE OUT OF THE WEST.
LATE IN THE CVG EXTENDED TAF PERIOD ON TUESDAY, LIGHT SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE
ADDED A MENTION BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD A VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION AT THIS TIME RANGE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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