680
FXUS61 KILN 131440
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
940 AM EST MON JAN 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY. A DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY WHILE FRIGID TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
HAVE TWEAKED THE SKY COVER FOR THIS UPDATE AS MUCH OF THE
REGION IS MOSTLY SUNNY AT THIS TIME. AM EXPECTING SOME
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE CAA
REGIME. OTHERWISE, A COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT OUT OF OUR
SOUTHEAST CWFA. WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN STEADY STATE OR SLIGHTLY RISE WHILE EASTERN AREAS WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES DROP SOME BEFORE STEADYING OUT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION --->
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD INTO
THE OHIO TODAY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT TODAY,
WITH READINGS REMAINING NEARLY STEADY IN THE 20S. WHILE WE START
THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WE COULD SEE A FEW MORE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. WITH THE SNOW PACK, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
OFF INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS BY MORNING. WITH WINDS
REMAINING IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE, WIND CHILL VALUES COULD DROP
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.
ANOTHER REINFORCING DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TROUGH ON TUESDAY. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH BRINGING A SWATH OF VERY LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE CWA FROM
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE COLD AIR MASS, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
WITHIN THE DGZ FOR EFFICIENT SNOWFLAKE PRODUCTION. MODEL SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS ARE ABOVE 20:1. THIS LEADS TO MAYBE UP TO AN
INCH OF LIGHT, FLUFFY SNOW BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT A FEW
DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 20 BY THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILL. LOWEST WIND CHILL WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL LIKELY END UP NEEDING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
A SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY RESULTING IN A FRONT BRUSHING BY THE AREA TO THE NORTH.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A LITTLE SNOW COULD CLIP CENTRAL
OHIO BUT CHANCES LOOK TO BE LESS 20 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SUPPRESS THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH, AND ONCE IT PASSES A
MODIFIED HIGH WILL BUILD BACK IN. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO MODERATE.
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. WHILE THERE IS STILL SPREAD WITHIN THE SOLUTIONS, IT DOES
APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS THIS
WILL BRING RAIN AND NOT WINTRY WEATHER. MOST LIKELY TIME FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, COLDER AIR WILL RETURN.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LAYERS OF VFR CLOUDS WITH PATCHES OF MVFR CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
A BIT TO START THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE RE-FORMING LATER THIS
MORNING IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. THERE IS A LITTLE
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL IN THE DETAILS FOR TODAY DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THERE IS NO CLEAR SIGNAL WHETHER CLOUDS WITH BASES
BELOW 3,000 FEET WILL HAVE ENOUGH COVERAGE TO CARRY A PERSISTENT
CEILING. THEREFORE, HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CEILINGS ABOVE THIS
THRESHOLD AND WILL NEED TO ADJUST AS TRENDS ALLOW. OTHERWISE,
FAVORABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND A STEADY BREEZE OUT OF THE WEST.
LATE IN THE CVG EXTENDED TAF PERIOD ON TUESDAY, LIGHT SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE
ADDED A MENTION BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD A VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION AT THIS TIME RANGE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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