913
FXUS61 KILN 131756
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1256 PM EST MON JAN 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY. A DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY WHILE FRIGID TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
HAVE TWEAKED THE SKY COVER FOR THIS UPDATE AS MUCH OF THE
REGION IS MOSTLY SUNNY AT THIS TIME. AM EXPECTING SOME
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE CAA
REGIME. OTHERWISE, A COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT OUT OF OUR
SOUTHEAST CWFA. WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN STEADY STATE OR SLIGHTLY RISE WHILE EASTERN AREAS WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES DROP SOME BEFORE STEADYING OUT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION --->
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD INTO
THE OHIO TODAY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT TODAY,
WITH READINGS REMAINING NEARLY STEADY IN THE 20S. WHILE WE START
THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WE COULD SEE A FEW MORE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. WITH THE SNOW PACK, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL
OFF INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS BY MORNING. WITH WINDS
REMAINING IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE, WIND CHILL VALUES COULD DROP
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.
ANOTHER REINFORCING DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TROUGH ON TUESDAY. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH BRINGING A SWATH OF VERY LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE CWA FROM
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE COLD AIR MASS, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
WITHIN THE DGZ FOR EFFICIENT SNOWFLAKE PRODUCTION. MODEL SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS ARE ABOVE 20:1. THIS LEADS TO MAYBE UP TO AN
INCH OF LIGHT, FLUFFY SNOW BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT A FEW
DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 20 BY THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILL. LOWEST WIND CHILL WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL LIKELY END UP NEEDING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
A SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY RESULTING IN A FRONT BRUSHING BY THE AREA TO THE NORTH.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A LITTLE SNOW COULD CLIP CENTRAL
OHIO BUT CHANCES LOOK TO BE LESS 20 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SUPPRESS THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH, AND ONCE IT PASSES A
MODIFIED HIGH WILL BUILD BACK IN. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO MODERATE.
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. WHILE THERE IS STILL SPREAD WITHIN THE SOLUTIONS, IT DOES
APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING AND THUS THIS
WILL BRING RAIN AND NOT WINTRY WEATHER. MOST LIKELY TIME FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, COLDER AIR WILL RETURN.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON, ZONAL FLOW FROM THE
SURFACE UP TO THE MID LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS A FEW CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE ACROSS THE WEST. WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST BETWEEN 18 AND 22 KNOTS.
FOR TONIGHT, MID LEVEL ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE SCALE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR REGION. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT CAA WILL COMBINE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
RESULTING IN SCT TO BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS (MVFR CEILINGS).
IN THE SHALLOW INSTABILITY, THERE EVEN COULD BE FEW FLURRIES.
STRATOCUMLUS DECK MAY SHOW SOME SIGNS OF SCATTERING AND/OR
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST TOWARD 12Z. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KNOTS DEPENDING ON LOCATION.
ON THURSDAY, THE EMBEDDED MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA. THEY WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. THUS, WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE FRONT GOES BY AND THE
EMBEDDED ENERGY MOVES THROUGH, PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TO A
FEW FLURRIES OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. SOMME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER IN THE POST PRECIPITATION ENVIRONMENT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HICKMAN
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