981
FXUS61 KILN 132044
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
344 PM EST MON JAN 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY, AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IT
WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE NEXT
APPRECIABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A MID LEVEL S/WV EMBEDDED IN A LARGE SCALE
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS MID LEVEL ENERGY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE.
FOR TONIGHT, THE CLOUD FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY. SUNNY SKIES
PREVAIL AS OF THIS AFD ISSUANCE. HOWEVER, VARIOUS MODELS
INDICATE THAT SOME CAA STRATOCUMULUS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
COVERAGE IS THE TOUGHEST THING TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME. WITH A
CONTINUED SNOW COVER AND SOME CAA, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS. WITH SOME WIND, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW ZERO. WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO COVER THIS
AND WILL ALSO MENTION IT IN THE HWO.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL S/WV EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE SCALE MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS
DYNAMIC LIFT, COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT, WILL ACT ON THE AVAILABLE MEAGER MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE A QUICK BURST OF SNOW. BASED ON VARIOUS CAMS AND GLOBAL
MODELS, HAVE GONE LIKELY WITH POPS. ALTHOUGH QPF FORECASTS RANGE
BETWEEN 0.01 AND 0.05, SLRS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 20:1. THUS, AN
INCH OR LESS OF FLUFFY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE COLD
TEMPERATURES, PAVEMENT SURFACES WILL ALSO BE COLD. THUS, THE
SNOW WILL BE EFFICIENT IN STICKING TO UNTREATED SURFACES,
CAUSING SLICK SPOTS. WILL MENTION THIS HAZARD IN THE HWO. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 20S FAR
SOUTH.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, EXITING PCPN MAY BRIEFLY END IN A FEW
FLURRIES OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR COLD LOW TEMPERATURES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5
ABOVE TO 5 BELOW ZERO. SOME WIND WILL BE PRESENT, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. AS A RESULT, WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 0 TO 10 BELOW ZERO. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE POSSIBLE.
ON WEDNESDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. DUE TO A COLD START, AND
WITH LINGERING SNOW COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN
DESPITE THE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH
TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE, MOVING EASTWARD
AS IT WEAKENS. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY
COLD AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY, A SWITCH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM ADVECTION TO THE AREA -- AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
MORNING, EVEN BEFORE DAYBREAK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE ONE MORE MORNING (THURSDAY AM) WITH WIND CHILL VALUES
THAT WILL BE PUSHING TOWARD COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ALOFT, A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES COULD
BRING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW TO CENTRAL OHIO ON THURSDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY DRIER
WITH THIS SYSTEM. ONCE THE UPPER TROUGHING BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY,
THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT. NOT ONLY WILL WARM
ADVECTION BE OCCURRING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, BUT THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL FEATURE SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING VALUES ABOVE FREEZING CWA-WIDE.
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THEN APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGING OVER THE AREA DIMINISHES LATE FRIDAY, A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY,
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM AND DEVELOP
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
ON SATURDAY MORNING. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS THAT A
SECONDARY TROUGH WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWING ABOUT 24-36 HOURS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION FOR THE THERMAL SETUP
WOULD ALLOW FOR THE FIRST SYSTEM TO BE PRIMARILY RAIN, WITH A
COLD FRONT BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR BY SUNDAY MORNING, ALLOWING
THE SECOND SYSTEM TO BE PRIMARILY SNOW. NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR
NOTABLE ACCUMULATIONS OF RAIN (FIRST SYSTEM) OR SNOW (SECOND
SYSTEM) AS OF NOW. BEHIND THE SUNDAY COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO THE NOW-FAMILIAR BELOW NORMAL PARADIGM THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF JANUARY THUS FAR.
AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON, ZONAL FLOW FROM THE
SURFACE UP TO THE MID LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS A FEW
CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE ACROSS THE WEST.
WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST BETWEEN 18
AND 22 KNOTS.
FOR TONIGHT, MID LEVEL ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE SCALE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR REGION. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT CAA WILL COMBINE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
RESULTING IN SCT TO BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS (MVFR CEILINGS). IN
THE SHALLOW INSTABILITY, THERE EVEN COULD BE FEW FLURRIES.
STRATOCUMLUS DECK MAY SHOW SOME SIGNS OF SCATTERING AND/OR
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST TOWARD 12Z. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KNOTS DEPENDING ON LOCATION.
ON THURSDAY, THE EMBEDDED MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA. THEY WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. THUS, WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES. ONCE THE FRONT GOES BY AND THE
EMBEDDED ENERGY MOVES THROUGH, PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TO A
FEW FLURRIES OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. SOMME MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER IN THE POST PRECIPITATION ENVIRONMENT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HICKMAN
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