134
FXUS61 KILN 140548
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1248 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY, AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IT
WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE NEXT
APPRECIABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE TN VLY THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD, BUT WILL DO SO IN A MANNER THAT KEEPS A LIGHT SFC
FLOW GOING LOCALLY, WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT WINDS FROM GOING CALM
FOR /MOST/ SPOTS. COULD SEE SOME CALM WINDS IN SHELTERED
LOCALES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE/N KY TOWARD DAYBREAK BEFORE THE
CLOUDS MOVE IN THAT WOULD SUPPORT BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. WITH THIS IN MIND, WHILE IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
TONIGHT, DO THINK THAT TEMPS MAY STAY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
PREVAILING GUIDANCE, WITH TEMPS GENERALLY PLATEAUING IN THE
LOWER TO MID TEENS FOR MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK. THIS IS NOT TO
SAY THAT A FEW SPOTS WON'T DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
(ESPECIALLY NEAR/W OF I-75 AND NEAR/S OF THE OH RVR), BUT THIS
WOULD PROBABLY BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
WITH THE LIGHT WSW SFC FLOW, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL RANGE FROM
5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL S/WV EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE SCALE MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS
DYNAMIC LIFT, COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT, WILL ACT ON THE AVAILABLE MEAGER MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE A QUICK BURST OF SNOW. BASED ON VARIOUS CAMS AND GLOBAL
MODELS, HAVE GONE LIKELY WITH POPS. ALTHOUGH QPF FORECASTS RANGE
BETWEEN 0.01 AND 0.05, SLRS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 20:1. THUS, AN
INCH OR LESS OF FLUFFY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE COLD
TEMPERATURES, PAVEMENT SURFACES WILL ALSO BE COLD. THUS, THE
SNOW WILL BE EFFICIENT IN STICKING TO UNTREATED SURFACES,
CAUSING SLICK SPOTS. WILL MENTION THIS HAZARD IN THE HWO. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 20S FAR
SOUTH.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, EXITING PCPN MAY BRIEFLY END IN A FEW
FLURRIES OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR COLD LOW TEMPERATURES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5
ABOVE TO 5 BELOW ZERO. SOME WIND WILL BE PRESENT, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. AS A RESULT, WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 0 TO 10 BELOW ZERO. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE POSSIBLE.
ON WEDNESDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE REGION. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. DUE TO A COLD START, AND
WITH LINGERING SNOW COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN
DESPITE THE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH
TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE, MOVING EASTWARD
AS IT WEAKENS. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY
COLD AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY, A SWITCH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM ADVECTION TO THE AREA -- AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
MORNING, EVEN BEFORE DAYBREAK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE ONE MORE MORNING (THURSDAY AM) WITH WIND CHILL VALUES
THAT WILL BE PUSHING TOWARD COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
ALOFT, A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES COULD
BRING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW TO CENTRAL OHIO ON THURSDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY DRIER
WITH THIS SYSTEM. ONCE THE UPPER TROUGHING BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY,
THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT. NOT ONLY WILL WARM
ADVECTION BE OCCURRING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, BUT THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL FEATURE SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING VALUES ABOVE FREEZING CWA-WIDE.
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THEN APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGING OVER THE AREA DIMINISHES LATE FRIDAY, A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY,
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM AND DEVELOP
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
ON SATURDAY MORNING. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS THAT A
SECONDARY TROUGH WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWING ABOUT 24-36 HOURS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION FOR THE THERMAL SETUP
WOULD ALLOW FOR THE FIRST SYSTEM TO BE PRIMARILY RAIN, WITH A
COLD FRONT BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR BY SUNDAY MORNING, ALLOWING
THE SECOND SYSTEM TO BE PRIMARILY SNOW. NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR
NOTABLE ACCUMULATIONS OF RAIN (FIRST SYSTEM) OR SNOW (SECOND
SYSTEM) AS OF NOW. BEHIND THE SUNDAY COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO THE NOW-FAMILIAR BELOW NORMAL PARADIGM THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF JANUARY THUS FAR.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE ALONG WITH SATELLITE TRENDS, WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A QUICK-
MOVING DISTURBANCE. MAIN IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL BE RESTRICTED
VSBY (MVFR TEMPO IFR) IN SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, THEN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND IT LATE IN
THE PERIOD. NOT MUCH SUPPORT FROM THE GUIDANCE FOR VERY LOW
CEILINGS, SO HAVE MAINTAINED MVFR DURING THE PERIOD OF THE LIGHT
SNOW.
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT AGAIN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. THERE IS A HINT OF MVFR CEILINGS BRUSHING ACROSS
CENTRAL OH TERMINALS (CMH/LCK) NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
BUT HAVE KEPT VFR FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...KC/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...
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