451
FXUS61 KILN 140905
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
405 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY,
BRINGING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NEXT
APPRECIABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
LONGWAVE RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH PERSISTENT
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
REINFORCE THE TROUGH TODAY, CAUSING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CWA. DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE,
SNOW RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE 20:1 OR A BIT HIGHER, SO EVEN OUR
MEAGER QPF COULD PRODUCE UP TO AN INCH OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION
ON THE COLD GROUND. WILL PLACE THIS HAZARD IN AN SPS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH TO
THE UPPER 20S SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO OUR COLDEST NIGHT DURING THE CURRENT COLD SPELL,
AS LOWS DROP TO A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO. SUPPOSE A
FEW SHELTERED AREAS/COLD SPOTS COULD MAKE IT DOWN TO THE -5 TO
-10 RANGE. WINDS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE LIGHTER IN RECENT
GUIDANCE, SO WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM ZERO TO -10.
ON WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OFF AS A CLIPPER RAPIDLY MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TRENDS ARE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BE A BIT FASTER AND A LITTLE MORE
ROBUST. SO THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO SPREAD
INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN PASS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER IN THE DAY. GREATEST COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR ANY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN CENTRAL OHIO.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, A MODIFIED AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION. SO TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE, ESPECIALLY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOME ESTABLISHED. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE AREA BEING WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN WHEN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
PARTICULARLY THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW WHICH WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THAT WILL MARK THE END OF
THIS BRIEF WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL.
A TRAILING DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW ON
SUNDAY WITH MONDAY LOOKING DRY.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE ALONG WITH SATELLITE TRENDS, WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A QUICK-
MOVING DISTURBANCE. MAIN IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL BE RESTRICTED
VSBY (MVFR TEMPO IFR) IN SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, THEN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND IT LATE IN
THE PERIOD. NOT MUCH SUPPORT FROM THE GUIDANCE FOR VERY LOW
CEILINGS, SO HAVE MAINTAINED MVFR DURING THE PERIOD OF THE LIGHT
SNOW.
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT AGAIN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. THERE IS A HINT OF MVFR CEILINGS BRUSHING ACROSS
CENTRAL OH TERMINALS (CMH/LCK) NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
BUT HAVE KEPT VFR FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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