989
FXUS61 KILN 141133
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
633 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY,
BRINGING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NEXT
APPRECIABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
LONGWAVE RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH PERSISTENT
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
REINFORCE THE TROUGH TODAY, CAUSING LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CWA. DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE,
SNOW RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE 20:1 OR A BIT HIGHER, SO EVEN OUR
MEAGER QPF COULD PRODUCE UP TO AN INCH OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION
ON THE COLD GROUND. WILL PLACE THIS HAZARD IN AN SPS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH TO
THE UPPER 20S SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO OUR COLDEST NIGHT DURING THE CURRENT COLD SPELL,
AS LOWS DROP TO A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO. SUPPOSE A
FEW SHELTERED AREAS/COLD SPOTS COULD MAKE IT DOWN TO THE -5 TO
-10 RANGE. WINDS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE LIGHTER IN RECENT
GUIDANCE, SO WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM ZERO TO -10.
ON WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OFF AS A CLIPPER RAPIDLY MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TRENDS ARE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BE A BIT FASTER AND A LITTLE MORE
ROBUST. SO THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO SPREAD
INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN PASS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER IN THE DAY. GREATEST COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR ANY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN CENTRAL OHIO.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, A MODIFIED AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION. SO TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE, ESPECIALLY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOME ESTABLISHED. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE AREA BEING WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN WHEN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
PARTICULARLY THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW WHICH WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THAT WILL MARK THE END OF
THIS BRIEF WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL.
A TRAILING DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW ON
SUNDAY WITH MONDAY LOOKING DRY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING QUICKLY AND WILL BRING WITH IT SOME LIGHT
SNOW. MAIN IMPACTS TO AVIATION WILL LIKELY BE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW. THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
LOW TO GO IN THE TAFS. HOWEVER, TIMING SHOULD BE QUICK DUE TO
ITS PROGRESSIVE NATURE.
NEXT POINT TO COVER IS THE TIMING OF DECREASING MVFR CLOUDS.
THE AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS VERY COLD AND DRY... HOWEVER, WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW AT AROUND 2,000 FEET, CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST
KEEPING MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE
TO COLD FLOW OVER THE UPSTREAM GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE, HAVE HELD
ONTO THESE CLOUDS A BIT LATER THAN GUIDANCE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR FUTURE ISSUANCES.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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