431
FXUS61 KILN 141828
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
128 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY,
BRINGING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NEXT
APPRECIABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO
DIG SOUTHEAST THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY LEAVING A
NORTHERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER SUPPORT -
A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN TO TRACK QUICKLY EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS OHIO TODAY
TO A POSITION OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY EVENING.
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS ILN/S NORTHERN COUNTIES. DUE TO THE
VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE, SNOW RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE 20:1 OR EVEN
A BIT HIGHER, SO EVEN OUR LIGHT LIQUID QPF COULD PRODUCE UP TO
AN INCH OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION ON THE COLD GROUND. WILL CONTINUE
WITH AN SPS TO MESSAGE THIS HAZARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO OUR COLDEST NIGHT DURING THE CURRENT COLD SPELL,
AS LOWS DROP TO A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO. SUPPOSE A
FEW SHELTERED AREAS/COLD SPOTS COULD MAKE IT DOWN TO THE -5 TO
-10 RANGE. WINDS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE LIGHTER IN RECENT
GUIDANCE, SO WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM ZERO TO -10.
ON WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OFF AS A CLIPPER RAPIDLY MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TRENDS ARE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BE A BIT FASTER AND A LITTLE MORE
ROBUST. SO THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO SPREAD
INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN PASS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER IN THE DAY. GREATEST COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR ANY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN CENTRAL OHIO.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, A MODIFIED AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION. SO TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE, ESPECIALLY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOME ESTABLISHED. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE AREA BEING WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN WHEN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
PARTICULARLY THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW WHICH WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THAT WILL MARK THE END OF
THIS BRIEF WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW NORMAL.
A TRAILING DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT SNOW ON
SUNDAY WITH MONDAY LOOKING DRY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD
FRONT TO TRACK QUICKLY EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA WITH THE BEST COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS ILN/S NORTHERN TAF
SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND OCCASIONALLY IFR AS
SNOW AFFECTS THE TAF SITES. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
MVFR CEILINGS WILL SCATTERED OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF
SITES. HAVE HELD ONTO MVFR CEILINGS AT THE CENTRAL OHIO TAF
SITES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15KTS WILL GUST UP TO 20 KTS AND THEN
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND GUST UP TO 25
KTS. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK WESTERLY TONIGHT AND THEN
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
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