592
FXUS61 KILN 150554
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1254 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE
IN THE DAY, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A QUICK BURST OF LIGHT
SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
A CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK AND THEN WARM
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED THIS EVENING IN OUR
FA. SOME FLURRIES MAY LINGER NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER THIS
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. ADDITIONALLY, THE GUSTY WINDS HAVE
FINALLY SUBSIDED, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, KEEP IN MIND THAT SOME ROADS AND SIDEWALKS
MAY STILL MAY BE COVERED IN SNOW FROM THE DRIFTS EARLIER THIS
EVENING, KEEPING ISOLATED SLICK SPOTS AROUND.
THE OTHER IMPORTANT MESSAGE FOR TONIGHT IS THE COLD
TEMPERATURES. ENHANCED RADIATIVE COOLING PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT GIVEN THE EXISTING SNOWPACK, WEAKENING SURFACE WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES. A NORTHWESTERLY WIND OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY LEAD
TO SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TRYING TO MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES, SO TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A FEW DEGREES HIGHER NEAR
AND NORTH OF I-70. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF I-70 HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO DIP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO DEGREES. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -10 DEGREES TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. ISSUED AN AREA WIDE SPS TO MESSAGE THESE
FRIGID TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/
A NORTH-NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES. IN THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS - HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE
TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY, TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP OFF QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH EARLY LOWS IN THE 5 TO 10
DEGREE RANGE. HOWEVER, AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND
SOME LOW LEVEL WAA DEVELOPS, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE
OVERNIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL THEN BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITION AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. CONTINUED WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO
OVERSPREAD OUR AREA FROM THE WEST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE WE WILL REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO BE MAINLY ALL RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENT. AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT, SOME BRIEF MIX MAY DEVELOP AS
THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM THE WEST LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IN CAA AND WEAK CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW, WILL
LINGER SOME LOWER CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG AND COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
DRY BUT BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
ONLY BE IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH SUBZERO OVERNIGHT
LOWS POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE TERMINALS THROUGH MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST LATE. THIS
WILL GENERALLY KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THIS COULD BE A FEW INTERMITTENT CEILINGS AROUND 3,000 FEET
NEAR CMH/LCK IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES.
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING IS LOW, SO HAVE KEPT A SCATTERED VFR
DECK FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE DAY AS
CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE PERIOD ENDS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...CLARK
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...
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