925
FXUS61 KILN 151812
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
112 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE COLD AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. BY THURSDAY, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND WARM
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE
A WARMER, WET SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY. SHARPLY COLDER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS DRY AND VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL
OFFER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE REGION. VERY COLD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO
REACH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
20S SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
MORE MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVEN AS RIDGING BUILDS EAST
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS THE DISTURBANCE DIGS SOUTHEAST, IT
APPEARS THE BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR IN OUR CENTRAL OHIO
COUNTIES. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED QPF A BIT FOR THAT AREA SINCE
EARLIER RUNS. WITH A COLD ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE, IT APPEARS THERE
IS SOME DECENT PROBABILITY OF 1-2 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST, WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN AN
INCH ELSEWHERE. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO GUST OUT OF THE WEST IN THE
15-25 MPH RANGE AS WELL, SO WILL STRENGTHEN THE HWO WORDING AND
MESSAGE THIS POTENTIAL IMPACT WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE.
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY HEADING INTO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REACH INTO THE 30S AFTER THE SNOW
ENDS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO START THE PERIOD WHICH WILL THEN MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL EMERGE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY EVENING AND LIFT EAST NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON SATURDAY. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE AS IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP ON FRIDAY EVENING, WITH
SOME PLACES GETTING TO OR A BIT BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE A BIT LATER IN THE NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE. THERE COULD BE
SOME WET SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 BUT MOST OF THE INCOMING
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE RAIN. AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, PRECIPITATION MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THIS BRIEF WARM UP. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL. A SUBSEQUENT DISTURBANCE PASSING ON SUNDAY
WILL BRING A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY,
KEEPING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS CENTRAL OHIO WHERE STRATUS WILL ALLOW FOR AN EARLY
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS.
CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND LOWER LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A 40-45KT WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE
TO A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT DIGS SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT LEADS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW
AFTER 09Z AND PICKS UP IN COVERAGE BY 12Z - ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL OHIO TAF SITES. CEILINGS TO DROP THRU MVFR WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS LIKELY LATE IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL ALSO IMPACT THE TAF SITES WITH MVFR
DROPPING TO IFR WITH THE LOWEST VSBYS AT KCMH AND KLCK.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ON
THURSDAY - BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY WITH IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
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