725
FXUS61 KILN 152044
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
344 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE COLD AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO TONIGHT. BY THURSDAY, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
WARM FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE A WARMER, WET SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS
THIS EVENING PRIOR TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN ZERO AND 5 BELOW BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE
AND TEMPERATURES RISE OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND LOWER LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A 40-45KT WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE
TO A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.
FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT LEADS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW
MAINLY AFTER 5 AM. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER BUT A
BUT A COVERAGE OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 6 AM ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
OF 40-45 KTS PROVIDES FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE - SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO/S
SUPPORT A SNOW OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH. THE HIGHEST
TOTALS LOOK TO OCCUR OVER CENTRAL OHIO WHERE SOME LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. FAR SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
WILL GENERALLY SEE LESS THAN AN INCH.
WINDS INCREASE AND GUST OUT OF THE WEST IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE,
WHICH WILL PROMOTE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION SNOW AND WIND IN THE HWO. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S.
THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH PCPN ENDS LOW CLOUDS HOLD ON OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING OUR AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT SOME
SNOW MIXING IN EARLY IN THE EVENT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTH. GOOD
CAA WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO PCPN
MAY BRIEFLY MIX/CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO
THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO FALL OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
GOOD CAA WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. MEANWHILE, OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE ZERO TO 10
BELOW RANGE WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
WIND CHILL READINGS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY,
KEEPING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS CENTRAL OHIO WHERE STRATUS WILL ALLOW FOR AN EARLY
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS.
CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND LOWER LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A 40-45KT WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE
TO A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT DIGS SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT LEADS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW
AFTER 09Z AND PICKS UP IN COVERAGE BY 12Z - ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL OHIO TAF SITES. CEILINGS TO DROP THRU MVFR WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS LIKELY LATE IN THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL ALSO IMPACT THE TAF SITES WITH MVFR
DROPPING TO IFR WITH THE LOWEST VSBYS AT KCMH AND KLCK.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ON
THURSDAY - BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY WITH IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page