791
FXUS61 KILN 160537
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1237 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE COLD AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO TONIGHT. BY THURSDAY, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
WARM FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE A WARMER, WET SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA, ALL THE WAY UP
INTO CANADA STILL. REGARDLESS, THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVERAGE, OUR COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER
OVERNIGHT. AS LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO SATURATE, SOME SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP FIRST IN OUR WEST-CENTRAL OH COUNTIES. HI-RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME IN SLIGHTLY LOWER ON SNOW TOTALS, SO
THERE COULD BE A DOWNTICK IN OVERALL SNOW TOTALS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, NOTE THAT SOME LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-70, COULD HAVE TRAVEL IMPACTS WITH THE MORNING
COMMUTE THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
OF 40-45 KTS PROVIDES FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE - SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO/S
SUPPORT A SNOW OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH. THE HIGHEST
TOTALS LOOK TO OCCUR OVER CENTRAL OHIO WHERE SOME LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. FAR SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
WILL GENERALLY SEE LESS THAN AN INCH.
WINDS INCREASE AND GUST OUT OF THE WEST IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE,
WHICH WILL PROMOTE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION SNOW AND WIND IN THE HWO. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S.
THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH PCPN ENDS LOW CLOUDS HOLD ON OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING OUR AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT SOME
SNOW MIXING IN EARLY IN THE EVENT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTH. GOOD
CAA WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO PCPN
MAY BRIEFLY MIX/CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO
THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO FALL OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
GOOD CAA WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ONLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. MEANWHILE, OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE ZERO TO 10
BELOW RANGE WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
WIND CHILL READINGS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE NW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM, WHICH WILL BRING SOME PATCHY SN
TO THE AREA AFTER 09Z. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SN IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOCUSED NEAR KCMH/KLCK AROUND 12Z, BUT SOME BRIEF SN IS ALSO
LIKELY FURTHER TO THE SW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL SITES.
OF COURSE, ANY PROLONGED SN WILL LEAD TO MVFR VSBYS, WITH IFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 12Z FOR KCMH/KLCK. THE
BULK OF THE SN SHOULD DRIFT TO THE SE OF THE LOCAL SITES PAST
ABOUT 14Z/15Z, WITH SOME LINGERING FLURRIES OR ISO SHSN EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. COULD
HAVE KEPT A VCSH AT OTHER SITES BESIDES KCMH/KLCK PAST MID
MORNING, BUT DECIDED TO ONLY INCLUDE A VC FOR LOCALES WHERE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHSN IS GOING TO FOCUS FOR LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BUT SCT FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED
PERIODICALLY, EVEN AFTER 00Z.
VFR CIGS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR BY 15Z FOR NRN SITES AND AFTER
18Z FOR SRN SITES OF KCVG/KLUK. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD
AREA-WIDE.
SW WINDS AROUND 10KTS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WILL INCREASE TO
12-15KTS, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS, EXPECTED PAST 12Z THROUGH
THE DAYTIME. WINDS WILL GO MORE WESTERLY BY 18Z, SUBSIDING TO
LESS THAN 10KTS ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY, WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY. MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...CLARK
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...KC
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