182
FXUS61 KILN 160759
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
259 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SNOW FOR TODAY WILL COME TO AN END BY TONIGHT, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY BEFORE RAIN, OR PERHAPS A RAIN
AND SNOW MIX, OVERSPREADS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
DAY SATURDAY. THE MIX MAY END AS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AREA-WIDE
BY SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS SETTLE
IN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS TO THE SE THROUGH THE OH VLY
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, BRINGING WITH IT SOME LIGHT
SNOW, WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WHILE SOME BRIEF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE,
INCLUDING IN THE TRI-STATE AND N KY, THE STEADIEST ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM WC THROUGH CENTRAL OH IN THE SEVERAL
HOUR PERIOD AROUND 12Z. THIS, OF COURSE, IS FAR FROM IDEAL FROM
A TIMING PERSPECTIVE AS IT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH RIGHT DURING
THE AM COMMUTE.
THE MOST CONCERNING ASPECT OF THIS SETUP IS CERTAINLY THE
TIMING, IMPACTING THE AM COMMUTES WITH SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY
AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIEST
(UP TO AN INCH) FROM WC THROUGH CENTRAL OH, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL OH. FURTHER TO THE SW TOWARD THE
TRI-STATE AND SE IN AND N KY, A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
PROGRESS QUICKLY TO THE SE FROM AROUND 10Z-13Z. ACCUMULATIONS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS, BUT WITH ANTECEDENT COLD GROUND TEMPS, THE SNOW
SHOULD EASILY STICK TO ANY UNTREATED SURFACES. THE SNOW COULD
BE BLOWING AROUND A BIT, TOO, ADDING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITY FOR TRAVELERS. WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR MOST OF
THE LOCAL AREA TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IMPACT FOR THE AM COMMUTE,
DESPITE THE RATHER LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR MOST SPOTS.
THE BANDED SN SHOULD DRIFT OFF TO THE SE AND OUT OF THE LOCAL
AREA BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER, ISO SHSN AND SCT FLURRIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE, WITH
AGAIN THE GREATEST COVERAGE FOCUSING FROM WC THROUGH CENTRAL OH
BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25KTS BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE N TO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN THE S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PULLS WELL TO THE E OF THE REGION TONIGHT,
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE SW OH VLY,
EVENTUALLY MIGRATING TO THE SE OF THE LOCAL AREA BY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL YIELD A FAIRLY QUICK TURNAROUND BACK TO
BROAD SW SFC FLOW BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR WAA TO BECOME
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SO
ALTHOUGH ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS ON TAP TONIGHT, WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID 20S, IT CERTAINLY WON'T BE AS COLD AS
SOME OF THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE SIGNALS FOR PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL TOWARD
SUNRISE FRIDAY ACROSS THE TRI-STATE INTO SE IN WHERE SKIES WILL
BE CLEAREST, AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST, BUT SUBTLE WAA OVER A
VERY COLD GROUND/SNOWPACK WILL ALREADY BE UNDERWAY. THE
STRATUS/STRATOCU DECK DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
SHOULD HANG ON FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT, BUT SOME LATE-NIGHT CLEARING FOR THE TRI-STATE COULD LEAD
TO A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL IF EVERYTHING
COMES TOGETHER JUST RIGHT. BUT DO THINK THE BEST SETUP FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG WILL STAY OFF TO THE SW OF THE LOCAL AREA, MORE
ACROSS SRN IL/IN.
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL FEEL ALMOST SUMMERLIKE BY COMPARISON TO
RECENT TRENDS, TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 30S IN THE N TO THE LOWER
40S IN THE S. THIS, COMBINED WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES, SHOULD PUT A SIZABLE DENT IN THE EXISTING SNOWPACK, EVEN
BEFORE IT IS RAINED UPON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ON FRIDAY EVENING, MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD, AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ENE
FROM OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL
BE IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40, EVEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY. WITH WARM ADVECTION ALSO OCCURRING ALOFT, THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE VAST MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD AS RAIN. THERE
IS SOME CHANCE THAT A BIT OF SNOW COULD MIX IN FOR THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA. THIS INITIAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH, BUT EVEN WITH
SOME SNOW MELT OCCURRING, THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY TO BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ANY FLOODING CONCERNS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS
PRECIPITATION IS COMING TO AN END, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS, AND WILL DEFINITELY LEAD TO COLDER
TEMPERATURES MOVING IN. THIS WILL ONLY BE THE START TO A PERIOD OF
EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES.
BEFORE GETTING INTO THE WORST OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES, ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. NOT SEEING
MUCH MODEL AGREEMENT ON MAGNITUDE OR PLACEMENT OF SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM, SO FOR NOW JUST SOME LOWER-END POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE
FORECAST.
THE MONDAY-TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD WILL BE ESPECIALLY COLD FOR THE
REGION, WITH MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW 0F FOR MOST OF
THE ILN FORECAST AREA. ADDING TO THE CONCERN IS THAT WINDS WILL NOT
BECOME COMPLETELY CALM THROUGH THIS PERIOD, PRODUCING WIND CHILLS
THAT WILL BECOME RATHER DANGEROUS, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.
LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES, CHANCES SEEM FAIRLY HIGH THAT
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP BELOW -10F, WITH A CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS
(MAINLY THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN CWA) MAY GET TO -20F. OF
COURSE, THERE ARE OUTLIER MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EVEN COLDER
THAN THAT, BUT REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT VALUE, THE COLD CONDITIONS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AND HAZARDOUS. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS THAT A VERY
SLIGHT WARM UP COULD OCCUR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, SO THE
COLDEST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ON THE MORNINGS OF MONDAY,
TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE NW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM, WHICH WILL BRING SOME PATCHY SN
TO THE AREA AFTER 09Z. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SN IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOCUSED NEAR KCMH/KLCK AROUND 12Z, BUT SOME BRIEF SN IS ALSO
LIKELY FURTHER TO THE SW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL SITES.
OF COURSE, ANY PROLONGED SN WILL LEAD TO MVFR VSBYS, WITH IFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND 12Z FOR KCMH/KLCK. THE
BULK OF THE SN SHOULD DRIFT TO THE SE OF THE LOCAL SITES PAST
ABOUT 14Z/15Z, WITH SOME LINGERING FLURRIES OR ISO SHSN EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. COULD
HAVE KEPT A VCSH AT OTHER SITES BESIDES KCMH/KLCK PAST MID
MORNING, BUT DECIDED TO ONLY INCLUDE A VC FOR LOCALES WHERE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHSN IS GOING TO FOCUS FOR LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BUT SCT FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED
PERIODICALLY, EVEN AFTER 00Z.
VFR CIGS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR BY 15Z FOR NRN SITES AND AFTER
18Z FOR SRN SITES OF KCVG/KLUK. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD
AREA-WIDE.
SW WINDS AROUND 10KTS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WILL INCREASE TO
12-15KTS, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS, EXPECTED PAST 12Z THROUGH
THE DAYTIME. WINDS WILL GO MORE WESTERLY BY 18Z, SUBSIDING TO
LESS THAN 10KTS ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY, WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY. MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...KC
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