533
FXUS61 KILN 162050
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
350 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
A FEW FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END EARLY, FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE RAIN
MAY END AS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW BY SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DRY
AND BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS SETTLE IN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WARM FRONT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WILL GUST TO 35 MPH EARLY AND THEN
BACK SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 MPH.
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO HANG
ON FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. SOME CLEARING
IS POSSIBLE LATE ACROSS THE FAR WEST. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
HOURS OF PATCHY FOG IF THE TIMING WORKS OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA VERY EARLY
FRIDAY WITH A QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WAA TO BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUING TO ERODE AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.
MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY 45-50 KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING GENERALLY TOWARD 06Z IN THE WEST AND OVERSPREADING
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WARM UP OVERNIGHT WITH P-TYPE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY RAIN. CAN NOT RULE OUT A MIX WITH A LITTLE
SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST. EARLY LOWS OF 30-35 TO RISE TO TO 35
TO 40 BY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RAIN WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME SNOW
POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON,
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE RAIN TO MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS IT
TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EARLY HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT.
GOOD CAA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
SOME FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25
DEGREE RANGE.
THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA WITH HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS AND NIGHTTIME LOWS OF ZERO
TO 10 BELOW. THERE IS STILL A WIDE SPREAD WITHIN THE ENSEMBLES
HOWEVER ON THE EXACT LOW TEMPERATURES. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH SNOW WE WILL ACTUALLY STILL HAVE ON THE
GROUND AFTER OUR BRIEF WARMUP THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. WIND
CHILL READINGS POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE BUT STILL REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 DEGREE
RANGE WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY BACKS WESTERLY FRIDAY AS RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES THRU 00Z.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATER
THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CAN NOT RULE
OUT SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG AND MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
TOWARD 12Z OVER THE WESTERN TAF SITES IF SKIES CLEAR OUT QUICK
ENOUGH.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 12-15 KTS, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS WILL
GO MORE WESTERLY, SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 10KTS THIS EVENING.
THESE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT 4-7 KTS OVERNIGHT AND
THEN SOUTHERLY AT 10-12 KTS FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY, WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE, ON
SATURDAY. MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR
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