534
FXUS61 KILN 170227
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
927 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
A FEW FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END EARLY, FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE RAIN
MAY END AS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW BY SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DRY
AND BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS SETTLE IN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
EVENING UPDATE...
LINGERING PRECIPITATION (MIXED SNOW GRAINS AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE) IS NOW SHIFTING EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA, LIKELY ENDING
THE SHORT-LIVED THREAT FOR SLICK CONDITIONS. THERE COULD STILL
BE SOME RE-FREEZE ISSUES WHERE BLOWING SNOW OCCURRED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
LOW- LEVEL DRYNESS HAS DECREASED THE LIKELIHOOD OF
ADDITIONAL FREEZING PRECIPITATION INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER LINGERING. 00Z ILN RAOB REVEALS WHY SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS OBSERVED ALONG WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW
GRAINS AS THE SATURATION LEVEL OCCURRED AROUND -8C. DUE TO THE
LOSS OF SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ, LIQUID DROPLETS FORMED
CREATING A LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ARE
STILL FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE TO OCCUR IF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ALREADY
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA, DECREASING THE CHANCES OF THIS
OCCURRING.
OTHER THAN THE ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION, THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WARM FRONT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WILL GUST TO 35
MPH EARLY AND THEN BACK SOUTHWEST DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10
MPH.
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO HANG
ON FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. SOME CLEARING
IS POSSIBLE LATE ACROSS THE FAR WEST. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
HOURS OF PATCHY FOG IF THE TIMING WORKS OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA VERY EARLY
FRIDAY WITH A QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WAA TO BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUING TO ERODE AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.
MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY 45-50 KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING GENERALLY TOWARD 06Z IN THE WEST AND OVERSPREADING
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WARM UP OVERNIGHT WITH P-TYPE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY RAIN. CAN NOT RULE OUT A MIX WITH A LITTLE
SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST. EARLY LOWS OF 30-35 TO RISE TO TO 35
TO 40 BY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
RAIN WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME SNOW
POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON,
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE RAIN TO MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS IT
TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EARLY HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT.
GOOD CAA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY IN CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
SOME FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25
DEGREE RANGE.
THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA WITH HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS AND NIGHTTIME LOWS OF ZERO
TO 10 BELOW. THERE IS STILL A WIDE SPREAD WITHIN THE ENSEMBLES
HOWEVER ON THE EXACT LOW TEMPERATURES. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH SNOW WE WILL ACTUALLY STILL HAVE ON THE
GROUND AFTER OUR BRIEF WARMUP THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. WIND
CHILL READINGS POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE BUT STILL REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25 DEGREE
RANGE WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A FEW HOUR MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR CMH/LCK IS THE
BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THIS 00Z UPDATE. BASED ON RECENT RADAR
TRENDS, OCCASIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND
02Z. UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED.
HAVE MAINTAINED MVFR CIGS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE TRENDS. THESE MVFR CIGS INCREASE IN HEIGHT TO VFR
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
BRIEF PATCHY FOG AND MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TOWARD 12Z
OVER THE WESTERN TAF SITES IF SKIES CLEAR OUT QUICK ENOUGH.
WIND GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS ARE BECOMING MORE INFREQUENT, SUBSIDING
TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT 4-7 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOUTHERLY
AT 10-12 KTS FRIDAY.
ADDED A PERIOD OF LLWS FOR CVG WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS
AROUND 2000 FEET WILL LEAD TO LLWS CONDITIONS FRIDAY EVENING
AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY, WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE, ON
SATURDAY. MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MCGINNIS/AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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